The current situation on the diplomatic front around Ukraine is developing rapidly. Visits by European leaders to Kyiv, Trump’s declaration of a truce, and the Kremlin’s response are all creating new tensions in the geopolitical context.
Russia’s room for maneuver has shrunk sharply after Trump’s statements and the European coalition’s demonstration of solidarity in Kyiv. The Kremlin is effectively once again in a situation similar to “Western Solidarity 2022.” But there is a nuance: this time Putin promised a truce without preconditions personally to Chinese President Xi Jinping — as the Chinese Foreign Ministry officially announced yesterday.
The US State Department says that concrete actions are expected from Moscow, not words. Senator Rubio’s line looks more rational and creates serious tension in the Kremlin. Putin’s team understands that it is losing momentum and may find itself in a deadlock, the way out of which will be humiliating — in the form of a request to lift sanctions.
The Kremlin’s main goal is to preserve room for maneuver. Putin currently has no coherent strategy. Therefore, he is manipulating: instead of a real truce, he is proposing “negotiations” (in Turkey), which should distract attention from the European coalition. This is also an attempt to give the UK a leadership role instead of France and Germany, provoking internal disputes in the EU.
With such steps, Putin is clumsily playing into Trump’s hands, who would like to shift responsibility for the war to Europe. However, since Trump himself has already joined the negotiation process, this logic looks dubious. At the same time, it is critically important for Putin to maintain contact with Trump as a guarantee of political legitimacy. The isolation regime is exhausting, and Trump, in case of an impulsive reaction, is capable of introducing tough sanctions, in particular against Rosneft.
Yesterday’s statements by Putin showed that Russia is simply stalling for time, hoping for contradictions within the West: between the EU and the US, as well as for the escalation of tariff conflicts between the US, the EU and China.
However, hope is not a strategy. The war that the Kremlin may resume threatens Russia with even greater losses and possible escalation from Trump and the EU.
What is the essence of the Kremlin’s tactics? It (allegedly) does not refuse peace, but replaces Trump’s demand for a truce with a proposal for negotiations. The goal is to weaken Western unity and force Zelenskyy to accept a losing scenario.
Conclusion
Putin believes that he has strong trump cards and is playing from a position of strength. But his only trump card is escalation. And the West has already learned to neutralize him, realizing that Putin is not capable of negotiating. This repels even Trump and weakens Russia’s position in the dialogue with China, which is increasingly cooperating with Europe.
Putin still believes in the possibility of advancing on the territory of Ukraine, while simultaneously applying nuclear blackmail. He does not believe in a unified West and thinks that Washington and Beijing will not finish him off. But this very underestimation may prove fatal for Russia.
Volodymyr Savchenko, CEO of The Ukrainian Review
