Energy is one of Russia’s main targets in Ukraine. The Kremlin has always viewed energy resources as a tool to influence and subjugate nations. Europe has repeatedly faced this, overcoming price increases and shortages of natural gas provoked by Russia. But the challenges that Ukraine is going through now are unheard of. No energy system in the world has ever experienced such attacks. The Russian army, in blatant disregard of the rules of war and international humanitarian law, continues to use modern weaponry to destroy civilian critical infrastructure.
Having spent more than $6 billion on 11 waves of missile launches in 2024, Russian troops damaged 11.1 out of 20.6 GW of Ukrainian power plants’ capacity in the spring of 2024. In particular, about 90% of thermal generation was put out of commission. This capacity exceeds the peak-hour demand of the three Baltic states, including Slovakia.
In order to ensure the stability of the energy system and restore what has been lost as much as possible, it is necessary to concentrate the state’s resources on the following tasks.
First. There must be guaranteed multi-level coverage of energy infrastructure facilities, in particular those undergoing and those that will undergo restoration work, by missile and air defense systems, primarily automated systems for searching, detecting, recognizing and engaging air targets.
Second. It is necessary to preserve the integrity of the United Energy System of Ukraine under any circumstances, guaranteeing the reliable and safe operation of its main facilities, including by equipping them with engineering and technical protection of at least the second level (against attack UAVs). It is necessary to stimulate the formation of distribution and generation reserves based on gas piston, gas turbine and thermal installations, in particular those located on the territory of industrial enterprises, and to constantly maintain the dispersed stocks of the most vulnerable equipment in a state of readiness.
In this regard, the assistance of European partners is extremely important, as they have provided Ukraine with mothballed thermal power plant equipment that not only retains its functionality but also meets the needs of domestic generating companies. By implementing this initiative, small Lithuania alone guaranteed the replacement of more than 300 units of critical equipment at TPPs and CHPs that were put out of commission as a result of Russian missile attacks.
Third. There is a need to significantly increase the use of distributed generation, in particular by forming a network of 500+ power plants in Ukraine, mainly cogeneration plants, with a guaranteed capacity of 1…10 (50) MW, running on local fuel, integrated into micro-grid distribution systems based on “smart grids” and connected to the United Energy System of Ukraine as elements of the ancillary services market. All energy facilities, including TPPs and low-capacity CHPs that have been shut down due to inefficiency, fuel shortages, court orders, etc., should be restored and connected to distribution systems upon request of military administrations.
The sooner we change the architecture of Ukraine’s energy system, the more we will be in time for all the reconstruction processes without exception. With this in mind, the government-approved action plan for the implementation of the Distributed Generation Development Strategy for the period up to 2035 needs to be implemented without fail. At the same time, the priority area of state support in this area should be the construction of generating facilities with guaranteed capacity, taking into account the development of “smart distribution networks”.
Fourth. It is necessary to ensure the energy autonomy of territorial communities, including through the use of local sources, in particular natural gas (Kharkiv, Poltava, Lviv regions); gas condensate (Poltava, Dnipro regions); methane from coal mines (Donetsk, Lviv, Volyn), peat (Volyn, Rivne, Chernihiv), woodworking waste (Ivano-Frankivsk, Zakarpattia, Zhytomyr), energy from small rivers (Volyn, Zakarpattia), solar and wind energy (Odesa, Kherson, Zaporizhzhia), grain straw and oilseed husks (agricultural regions).
All instruments of state and local support should be accessible, transparent, understandable and as simple as possible. The economy is in dire need of additional generation. Therefore, financial instruments for citizens and businesses should be launched as soon as possible.
A number of measures have already been implemented. In particular, it is now possible to conduct business activities during martial law without obtaining permits. Turbines, generators, inverters, photovoltaic panels, transformers, and other goods imported to Ukraine under agreements financed by the Energy Community Secretariat are exempt from value-added tax and import duties. Government programs for interest-free lending to citizens, as well as the Affordable Loans “5-7-9” program for the purchase of equipment for energy conservation and generation from alternative sources, have been launched. Under a memorandum on bank lending for energy infrastructure restoration projects, 34 banks have raised funds. The installation of small power plants, modular boilers, and generators, as well as their connection to networks and systems, has been significantly simplified.
Fifth. The action plans developed in 2024-2025 to ensure the security of critical infrastructure that provides vital functions in territorial communities need to be strictly implemented.
Learning the lessons of the full-scale invasion confirms the importance of guaranteeing the state’s ability to perform its functions and provide services to citizens under any circumstances. This should be ensured by strategic management and risk management systems. The state, business, and citizens must act in a clear and coordinated manner and be able to neutralize any threat through joint efforts.
However, we will not be able to realize our goals without external assistance and investment. It will take at least four years and more than $50.5 billion to create new things and restore what has been lost according to the Build Back Better principle. It is necessary to supply Ukraine, in particular under the four-year Ukraine Facility program, with equipment for the construction of at least 1.4 GW of highly maneuverable power plants, 1.1 GW of biofuel plants, 0.8 GW of energy storage systems, 4.5 GW of wind power plants, and 3.8 GW of photovoltaic power plants.
However, this is not about helping the weak. It is about highly profitable investments for European, American, and other partner companies, a large market and loan programs, the creation of a new energy foundation, tens of thousands of new jobs, and sustainable economic growth. All of this will allow us to respond to the situation here and now, to maintain a normal, or rather close to normal, life during the war.
Dr. Prof. Gennadii Riabtsev, Chief Researcher of the National Institute for Strategic Studies
