Military aid to Ukraine next year is under threat – some allies are experiencing financial difficulties, while other countries refuse to increase aid to Kyiv, Babel reports.
Bloomberg writes about it, citing its own sources.
Much of Ukraine’s military support in 2025 is tied to a G7 agreement to provide $50 billion in loans from frozen Russian assets. However, while the allies are still discussing the final details of this agreement, the United States is demanding guarantees that Hungary will not block European sanctions against Russian assets. As a result, the final amount of loans may be less than €35 billion.
The $50 billion in aid that the G7 is going to provide is roughly equivalent to the funds that the United States and key European allies allocated in the period January 2023-June 2024. According to the Kiel Institute for the World Economy, the United States has provided about $31.5 billion, while Germany, the United Kingdom, France, and Italy have provided about $15.7 billion.
Moreover, in some cases, Ukraine’s allies do not publish data on the aid provided to Kyiv, so the real figures may be even higher than $50 billion.
However, even $50 billion is not enough for Ukraine to survive another year of war. According to Bloomberg sources, the allies will have to go beyond this funding.
These problems are also compounded by a funding shortfall. Next year, Ukraine forecasts a $35 billion budget deficit (19% of GDP). About $20 billion of the deficit will be covered by the Ukraine Facility program and assistance from the International Monetary Fund. But the rest – $15 billion – is still uncovered, so G7 loans may be needed.
One of the reasons why Kyiv’s financing is in question is the fiscal constraints faced by Ukraine’s allies.
The German government is constrained by constitutional debt limits, so direct funding to Kyiv has already been cut. And France has a new government formed after a tumultuous election, and the EU is putting pressure on Paris to reduce its budget deficit.
Negotiations in Brussels on a new EU budget, as well as any talk of joint borrowing to increase defense spending by hundreds of billions of euros, will likely have to be postponed until after the German elections. Bloomberg notes that aid from the United Kingdom has also declined, as Prime Minister Keir Starmer has previously spoken of the need to save money.
Ukraine is trying its best to convince its Western allies to fulfill their promises, as the coming winter will be the third since Russia’s full-scale invasion.
