“Ukraine cannot and should not be placed in a special box outside Europe. Ukraine is Europe and Europe is Ukraine, presently defending the West in the East.”
“Instead of offering Ukraine, if not Nato membership within a limited period of time, the US suggested guarantees like the ones extended to Israel. An idiocy.”
Vienna
As a hot summer slowly turns to autumn so much is clear, that the political climate between Russia, a pretentious, but declining Eastern power, and the West is moving from bad to worse. The storm warnings after the recent Nato summit in Vilnius are obvious, exacerbated by the instability and unpredictability of the Kremlin, having its own season of fire in the shape of the Wagner-rebellion.
Such is the forecast that even China, having had a look at its long-term interests, are showing small signs, very small indeed, of wanting an improved climate between Beijing and Washington. Vladimir Putin, the moscovite [an archaic word for Russian – ed.] warlord, cannot in any way, not even by the crooks surrounding him, be seen as a safe bet. The Ukrainian military offensive is up and running, not marvelously, but better than claimed by the Putin-regime and the Putinists outside Russia. Maybe we are at the beginning or even the middle of a turning point in this terrible confrontation between Ukraine and Russia, between the civilized West and the barbarian East.
The Vilnius summit took place as it could, not as it should. The leaders of the alliance provided Ukraine with far-reaching assurances, but made the mistake of promising the Ukrainians membership of Nato only after the termination of the war. As Moscow does not, at just about any prize, want Ukraine in Nato, this badly conceived idea most probably will prolong and possibly intensify the conflict.
Nevertheless, the summit can rightly be advertised as historic. A new security doctrine is in place and makes it clear that post-communist Russia is no longer the partner, it was presumed to be, but an enemy. If everything goes as the Augurs predict, not only Finland, but also Sweden will soon be in place in the alliance. With the arrival of these small, highly armed states Northern Europe is unmistakably Nato country and the Baltic just as unmistakably Nato sea. Neutral Austria could be next – the debate is already running. So, this is, what Putin got out of his ill-thought-through and ill prepared attack on Ukraine almost a year and a half ago: the West is militarily and politically stronger than ever in its decision that an aggressive Russia must be kept down and out.
Much was achieved in Vilnius. More was possible and would have been better. The right thing — to give the Ukrainians a clear time frame for their inclusion into Nato — ran aground on Western apprehension. The US and Germany in particular did not want to offend the supposed delicate feelings of the ruling Russian gangsters. They repeated the mistake of the NATO summit in Bucharest in 2008. Here Ukraine and Georgia were promised membership in Nato, but at no specific date. Half a year later, Russia invaded Georgia. It was a dress rehearsal, and when it proved costless, the real drama could begin. In 2014 Russia annexed Crimea and invaded the Donbas, again – now incredibly – without any significant reaction. So, in 2022, the total war followed, in effect a Third World War, which has so far cost around 200 000 dead or maimed, colossal amounts of military equipment, and led to physical and other destruction In Ukraine in the order of € 400 billion.
Vilnius was the stage, where Nato should have moved forcefully onto the scene – like Fortinbras in Shakespeare´s Hamlet. The Russian armies in Ukraine are on their heels, and the Kremlin surely is a shaken court with several generals having been removed, following the Wagner insurrection.
Instead of offering Ukraine, if not Nato membership within a very limited period of time, the US suggested guarantees like the ones extended to Israel. An idiocy. Ukraine is not a Middle Eastern state, violently created on other people’s territory. Ukraine is a peaceful European democracy that has been brutally assaulted by a fascist-thinking and fascist-acting neighboring power that for its own purposes needs a military victory on European soil. Ukraine cannot and should not be placed in a special box outside Europe. Ukraine is Europe and Europe is Ukraine, presently defending the West in the East.
The Ukrainians have to live with their disappointment, and after all, one might believe for now that massive military aid is probably of greater value to them than the formality of membership. Nato, the EU, the G7, everybody, should over the autumn and the coming winter, in their own damned interest, enable Ukraine to win this war of aggression so emphatically that we have heard from Russia for the last time this century.
Battles are won or lost on tactics, wars are won or lost on strategy. Give time, give patience, give weapons, tons and tons of weapons, and in a year or two, even three, Ukraine, Europe, the West and the rules-based international order will be safe. We are in this together.
Author: Per Nyholm
Danish journalist since 1960, based in Austria, columnist and foreign correspondent at the liberal Danish daily newspaper Jyllands-Posten. This text was translated and adapted for The Ukrainian Review by Stanislav Kinka.
