The German Center for War Games at the Helmut Schmidt University of the Federal Armed Forces organized a simulation of a Russian attack on the Baltics in October 2026. The results were alarming: Moscow could achieve its goals within days due to NATO indecision.
The Wall Street Journal reported this, noting that 16 former NATO officials and security experts participated. In the scenario, Vladimir Putin used a “humanitarian crisis” in Kaliningrad as a pretext to seize the Lithuanian city of Marijampolė. This city is a vital strategic junction between Russia and Belarus.
During the exercise, the U.S. declined to invoke NATO’s Article 5 for collective defense. Germany remained hesitant, and Poland did not send troops across the border. With only 15,000 troops, Russian forces managed to shatter trust in the Alliance and establish dominance in the region. Analysts emphasize that deterrence depends on the enemy’s belief in the West’s will.
European vulnerability to aggression
European leaders are now reconsidering the potential conflict timeline. Previously, it was believed Russia would not threaten NATO until 2029. However, experts warn a crisis could occur much sooner. Moscow is actively building strategic reserves and expanding its presence along NATO borders.
Meanwhile, Lithuanian military leaders are more optimistic. Rear Admiral Giedrius Premeneckas stated that intelligence would provide sufficient warning for preparation. He emphasized that Lithuania’s own forces could handle a limited threat independently.
Additionally, Ukraine and the West have agreed on a response plan in case Russia violates future peace agreements. Russia may use information operations to destabilize Europe before launching actual combat.
Earlier The Ukrainian Review reported that Russian hackers tried to disrupt preparations for the 2026 Winter Olympics.
