It turned out that merchant shipping in the Black Sea is quite possible without a grain deal, i.e., without agreement with Russia. But is it possible to resume passenger air traffic in a country at war? This idea has been discussed on the highest levels for months. Moreover, Israel has a positive experience. So, let’s try to analyse the situation in more detail.
Opening at least one airport: pros and cons
It should be noted that the initiative has many different nuances, so we will focus on the main ones. The idea of opening only one single airport per country to handle passenger traffic is being discussed. This was stated by the Head of the Office of the President of Ukraine, Andriy Yermak, during a speech at the Hudson Institute as part of his trip to the United States in November 2023.
In March 2024, it became known that Ukraine had taken concrete steps, including starting consultations with European and American partners. This was stated by Oleksandr Kubrakov, Vice Prime Minister for the Restoration of Ukraine.
However, according to the official, discussing specific deadlines is difficult. The European Aviation Safety Agency, EASA, and the US FAA are quite conservative. Therefore, Ukraine will have to work hard to convince them to grant permission to use the country’s airspace, where dozens of drones and missiles are launched almost daily.
As Israel did in its time. Although situations differ, the example of the ongoing Arab-Israeli conflict proves that in the modern world, passenger air traffic during military operations is not only theoretically possible. For example, 2,000 flights to different continents depart from Ben Gurion International Airport in Tel Aviv every week. Even after the escalation of the conflict as a result of the Hamas terrorist group’s attack on Israeli cities in autumn 2023, the airport did not stop operating. Many people around the world consider Ben Gurion to be the safest airport in the world.
We have requested information from the Office of the President of Ukraine and will add it to the story as soon as we receive a response.
Who is ready to work in the Ukrainian air transport market?
Given the situation’s complexity, it is necessary to understand who is ready to enter this market before opening up airspace. But there are no problems with this issue. At least for now, the situation looks quite optimistic. Several companies have already expressed their willingness to operate in Ukraine despite the lack of specifics on the timing and the very fact that passenger traffic will be allowed.
Europe’s largest low-cost airline, Ryanair, is ready to invest $3 billion in the Ukrainian air transport market and deploy up to 30 new Boeing MAX aircraft. This will happen when EASA confirms the safety of flights in the Ukrainian sky. The airline plans to open 75 routes from Europe to Ukraine.
Ryanair CEO Michael O’Leary also suggested that a certain number of flights could be resumed even during the war.
The Polish carrier LOT is ready to enter the Ukrainian market with the vague wording “as soon as possible, depending on the security situation”. The company is interested in the Ukrainian market because of the large number of Ukrainians living in Poland.
Ukrainian airline Air Ocean Airlines is also ready to resume flights. For this purpose, the airline can use two An-148 aircraft developed in Ukraine, which it used before the full-scale Russian invasion. If it is deemed safe, Air Ocean Airlines could launch flights from Uzhhorod airport.
Which airports are being discussed
Boryspil
Boryspil International Airport is the main and largest passenger airport in Ukraine. It is also obviously Ukraine’s most secure airport in terms of air defence: it is covered by Kyiv’s powerful air defence system, which includes the Patriot air defence system. At the same time, flying through Ukraine to and from the borders with Europe raises serious security questions. Who would be willing to fly across a country where a passenger plane could be shot down at any time? So, let us consider this option as the most theoretical.
Lviv
Lviv Danylo Halytskyi International Airport is one of the largest airports in Ukraine and the largest in the western regions. It has a favourable logistical position due to its proximity to Europe (about 60 km to the Polish border), but this does not guarantee the safety of passengers during this short distance. Russian missiles can reach any part of Ukraine, so the risks remain relevant. It is unlikely that the Poles will reach an agreement to close this air corridor with their air defence system, both in the context of NATO’s policy of direct military non-intervention in the war in Ukraine and in the context of complicating bilateral relations.
However, in an interview with the Voice of America, Mayor of Lviv Andriy Sadovyi noted that the air gates on the West of Ukraine could be opened this year, provided that several problematic issues are resolved:
“From a security perspective, this issue is quite sensitive. However, we are talking at different levels, and it is realistic. To do this, of course, we need to move the air defence systems from the Polish side to the Ukrainian territory a little bit. It’s not much – 70 kilometres – to set up a line there. Plus, the appropriate [steps] must be taken internationally. I believe that the world-Ukraine air service will resume this year,” – the mayor said.
We also asked the Lviv Regional Military (State) Administration for an official comment. They also believe that this is a promising issue.
Orest Shulikovskyi, Director of the Roads Department of the Lviv Regional Military (State) Administration:
“Last year, the Lviv region was the leader in paying tourist tax. Since the borders are closed for some categories, and the tourism business in the Lviv region is developing rapidly and paying serious taxes (last year – about UAH 350 million), we need to support the economy. We are a rear region, so we must help the state economically. Our tourism development could go even further with the opening of air traffic and the Lviv airport. Our UGA leadership emphasises the importance of this issue during all international meetings. Everyone understands that the key point is to close the skies over the Lviv region. 70 kilometres to the EU border is not far, but it must be safe. We are working on this issue. And our government – the President, the Cabinet of Ministers, the Verkhovna Rada – are trying to get additional air defence systems from our partners.”
Uzhhorod
Uzhhorod International Airport is a relatively small airport that, among other things, has infrastructure problems, which is why it operated intermittently even before the full-scale invasion. Its main advantage is that planes take off and land through Slovakian airspace. The border with the NATO country is only 100 metres from the runway. By attacking this area with missiles, the Russians risk provoking a direct military conflict with the North Atlantic Alliance. At the same time, there are no absolute guarantees that this will stop the aggressor. The Zakarpattia Regional Military Administration opposed this initiative:
“We are at war throughout the country, and although Zakarpattia is a rear region, this does not mean there is no danger here. Therefore, we have no right to endanger the lives of civilians with the phantom argument that the airfield in Uzhhorod is located under the border of the NATO country of Slovakia. The safety of citizens here is higher than the commercial interests of the carrier,” – the official statement said.
Expert opinion
We spoke to experts who were quite sceptical about the idea of partially opening Ukrainian airspace to passenger aircraft. However, they do not categorically reject the possibility of implementing this initiative.
Jeffrey Fisher, U.S. Air Force, is a 30-year military aviator and electronic warfare officer with seven combat tours in Iraq, Afghanistan, and the Balkans.
“Technically, anything is possible, but it comes with cost. Closing the airspace with GBAD (Ground Based Air Defence ) alone would likely be cost-prohibitive. The proximity of NATO nations and, more importantly, NATO assets will likely be key to the overall success or failure of the F-16s.
ISR assets could be a major player, but at this point, the U.S. and West have not stated if this information will be shared with the F-16 cockpits. I think Ukraine is trying to set conditions to open airspace for when the F-16s arrive.
I’d not compare Ukraine to Israel. Or, to a finer point, Russia’s ability to create an air defence vs HAMAS”.
Valeriy Romanenko, aviation expert leading researcher at the National Aviation University.
“The biggest problem is ensuring the safety of passengers, of course. Some Russian missiles have a flight time of minutes. It makes no sense to open an airport for one flight a day. It is unprofitable. We need 5-6 flights a day. To do this, we need to ensure the operation of all services. At the same time, in the event of an air raid, everyone must leave the plane within 90 seconds. I see it this way: Uzhhorod is the maximum airport that can be opened. It is the closest to the border. The wind direction plays a big role. A missile could accidentally hit a NATO country with all the ensuing consequences.
From the point of view of convenience, we will not have large passenger traffic. At the same time, you can get to European capitals within an hour. Convenient location. This is the most convenient airport in these conditions, though the question is for the carriers who need it.
But this is more of a theory. I understand that there is an example of Israel, but Israel is shot at from water pipes, and we are shot at with modern aerial ballistic missiles. Is there a difference? In addition, they have such a density of air defence that they can shoot down sparrows. And we don’t fire at multiple-launch rocket systems at all. We don’t have enough missiles. We have no way to create an “iron dome” across our territory”.
Oleksandr Kovalenko, military observer, journalist.
“This is a bad idea. Today, we cannot protect any passenger aircraft in our airspace 100%. Airfields are also dangerous, even if they are opened in the western part of Ukraine. The Russian X-47M2 Kinzhal air-to-ground missile can easily reach them. It takes 4-5 arrivals, and it is guaranteed that, for example, the airport building will be destroyed. The result is a large number of civilian casualties.
This idea can only be achieved by creating a tiered air defence system, like in Kyiv. But let’s be frank: where are these installations more needed – in the western part of Ukraine or in Kharkiv and other cities that are hit by planes every day? What will it look like in general? We understand that the services of this airport will be used by tax evaders and certain “privileged” individuals. The presence of air defence systems there will also create additional tension in society. Therefore, given the current situation, I am against such an initiative”.
Conclusions
The issue of the partial opening of Ukrainian airspace to passenger aircraft is a highly complex one, with many nuances to ensure flight safety. European and American authorities are sceptical about this initiative. However, consultations are underway, so the issue is not hopeless. In addition, several carriers have already volunteered to start operating in wartime. The matter is now up to detailed risk analysis and specific solutions as part of possible future agreements between Ukraine and its international partners.
Kostyantyn Grechany
