A ceasefire in Ukraine depends entirely on Vladimir Putin acknowledging that Russia cannot win its full-scale war. The Russian leader must realize he has no prospects of gaining more territory before any real peace process can begin.
General Keith Kellogg, former US special envoy for Ukraine, reported this during an interview with NHK. Having served as a key figure in peace talks through December, Kellogg offers a unique perspective on the Kremlin’s current mindset.
“Putin has to agree that he’s not going to gain any more land. The next step is for Putin to realize that he’s got nothing to gain,” Kellogg stated.
The General clarified that a ceasefire is technically possible “today” if both sides freeze the current front lines. However, he identified Putin as the sole obstacle to this resolution. While Ukraine refuses to cede its sovereign land, the Kremlin continues to demand control over the Donetsk and Luhansk regions.
Kellogg also highlighted the staggering human cost of the invasion, estimating Russian casualties between 1.2 and 1.4 million personnel. He believes the Russian dictator fears the historical consequences of a failed military campaign.
“Putin is concerned that he’ll be another Nicholas II, the last czar who was shot dead after his abdication,” Kellogg remarked.
Kellogg’s Role and Diplomatic Stance
As a former special envoy, Kellogg was deeply involved in the dialogue between Moscow and Kyiv. He remains a vocal critic of diplomatic hesitation on the global stage. Late last month, Kellogg criticized the US position after Washington abstained from voting on a UN General Assembly resolution supporting lasting peace in Ukraine.
His expertise suggests that the Russian leadership is well aware of the damage caused by international sanctions. Kellogg argues that peace will only arrive when the Russian elite accepts the reality of their strategic defeat. His observations provide a crucial look into the high-stakes diplomacy surrounding the full-scale invasion.
Previously, The Ukrainian Review reported on the consequences of night strikes on Kharkiv and Dnipro, where dozens were injured due to Russian terror.
