The US is preparing for the November 2026 elections, which will determine the new composition of Congress. Currently, it is controlled by Republicans – Donald Trump’s party. However, in the next elections, the situation may change, and Democrats will receive a majority.
It is the Senate that approves budgets, control laws, as well as foreign policy funding, including military aid to Ukraine. So how will the likely loss of the Republicans in Ukraine be reflected – we will analyze further.
Who is in charge now and what does this mean for Ukraine
At the moment, Republicans have a majority in Congress, which formally allows them, together with the president, to determine budget policy and allocate funds for foreign aid.
However, even among Republicans there is no unanimity on support for Ukraine. During 2024–2025, the House of Representatives and the Senate were engaged in fierce debates over aid packages: some Republican lawmakers tried to delay the vote or sought to reduce the allocated funds, and some initiatives to finance the Armed Forces of Ukraine were initially blocked altogether.
This reflects the factional split in the Republican Party: some congressmen advocate continued support for Ukraine, while others demand strict control over spending or reductions in aid, arguing for this with domestic budget priorities and economic risks.
What will change if the Republicans lose
If the Democrats gain a majority in one or both chambers, this will mean that the Republican Trump administration will significantly lose the opportunity to promote its initiatives without compromising with the opposition. Such a change in the balance could also affect US policy regarding the war in Ukraine and support for Kyiv.
Also, if the Democrats gain control of at least the House of Representatives, and possibly the Senate, this could affect US foreign policy.
Change in terms of aid to Ukraine. Democrats have traditionally advocated for steady support for Kyiv, although the details are always difficult to agree on. A majority of Democrats in Congress may find it easier to approve funds for Ukraine, but requirements for transparency and aid goals may become clearer.
Limits on Trump’s foreign policy autonomy. If Congress is controlled by the opposition, it will be more difficult for the president to conduct his own foreign policy without consulting lawmakers. This applies to negotiations or initiatives on Russia and peace.
Political uncertainty. The outcome of the midterm elections could create a “divided government,” where the executive and legislative branches of power belong to different political forces. This often leads to political gridlock and stalling of important decisions, which could also affect American support for Ukraine.
Forecasts and current trends
New polls show that Democrats are ahead of Republicans in voter sentiment. In addition, Republican Senator Ted Cruz has already warned that his party could suffer a serious defeat in the 2026 midterm elections, giving Democrats a chance to regain control of the House of Representatives and even the Senate.
On the one hand, Trump’s approval ratings are hovering around 40%, which is a relatively high figure for American politics, especially given the polarization of society.
On the other hand, more and more experts are drawing attention to the risks for Republicans. Trump’s trade policy poses a threat of an economic slowdown or even a recession. If the economic situation worsens, this will traditionally hit the president’s party in the midterm elections. That is why tensions and criticism of the White House’s economic policy are growing within the Republican Party.
Analysts also note that Democrats have a chance for revenge if they manage to convert voters’ economic dissatisfaction into votes. At the same time, they have not yet demonstrated a unified national strategy that plays into Trump’s hands.
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Thus, the midterm elections in the US could become another factor of uncertainty for Ukraine. A Republican defeat would not mean a sharp change in Washington’s course, but would make Kyiv’s support more dependent on internal struggles in American politics. For Ukraine, this means one thing: the issue of aid is increasingly moving beyond the boundaries of bipartisan consensus and becoming an element of the electoral game.
Anna Romaniv
