What happened at the talks in Florida?
Talks were held in Florida between Ukrainian and American delegations on the peace process in the war between Ukraine and Russia.
Despite politicians’ statements that everything went very fruitfully and optimistically, it is clear that the main issues remain unresolved.
For example, Marco Rubio reassuringly stated:
“Everything went well, but there is still work to be done.”
There was also a positive reaction among the Ukrainian delegation – Rustem Umerov noted:
“We have made tangible progress on the path to peace.”
However, all these words may turn out to be empty, as no agreement has been reached on the two main issues – territorial concessions and security guarantees for Ukraine.
In particular, the Kremlin continues to insist on international recognition of the occupied Ukrainian territories as its own and, in addition, wants to resolve the future status of these regions.
During the negotiations themselves, the American delegation was clearly in a hurry, as it wanted to quickly reach agreement on these two points in order to present the plan to Putin on Tuesday. However, this did not work out.
Nevertheless, next on the agenda was Steve Witkoff’s trip to Moscow, where he was to meet with the Russian dictator.
What was discussed in the Kremlin?
It is worth noting that prior to the meeting between the US and Russian delegations, dictator Vladimir Putin made a speech in which he, as usual, resorted to bold and arrogant statements and threats.
In particular, he said that Europe is putting forward proposals for peace in Ukraine that are unacceptable to Russia. At the same time, he says that the Kremlin “allows Europeans to return to negotiations if they take into account the realities on the ground.”
The aggressor also expressed his readiness to fight with Europe:
“Europe has removed itself from the Ukrainian settlement. It has no peaceful agenda and is now hindering US efforts to resolve the situation. Europe is putting forward proposals for a peace plan for Ukraine that are unacceptable to Russia. Russia does not intend to fight European countries, but if Europe starts a war, Russia is ready right now, and then Moscow will have no one to negotiate with.”
He also made threats against Ukraine regarding the destruction of two shadow fleet tankers by Ukrainian drones:
“Russia will strike Ukrainian ports and ships entering them more often in response to attacks on tankers. Russia can cut Ukraine off from the sea.”
The talks in the Kremlin, in turn, only confirmed what had been discussed in Florida.
After the meeting, Putin’s aide Yuri Ushakov said:
“There are no compromises regarding the war in Ukraine – not yet. Moscow has received four more documents in addition to the 28-point US plan: some of them are controversial, while others we agree with.”
Experts note that there are several options for a peace agreement, all of which Russia has consistently rejected.
At the same time, NBC News, citing a Russian official who spoke on condition of anonymity, writes that Putin will not make concessions on three points under any circumstances: the capture of the entire Donbas, the reduction of the Armed Forces of Ukraine to leave Ukraine defenseless, and the recognition of the occupied territories by the US and Europe.
What does all this indicate?
It indicates that negotiations through talks alone are ineffective. The parties are willing to compromise on secondary issues, but they stand their ground on the main ones.
It will be impossible to convince Putin to agree to a “territorial exchange” because he does not consider Ukraine to be a state at all and would not even bargain for Kursk if the Ukrainian Armed Forces were able to gain a foothold there.
Therefore, in this situation, according to the US, there is only one option left: to put pressure on Zelenskyy.
The Washington Post wrote that Washington will soon put a lot of pressure on the Ukrainian president to finally get him to sign a peace agreement.
At the same time, Zelenskyy himself finds himself in a very difficult situation because, for example, some Ukrainian Armed Forces soldiers, according to NBC News, say:
“The Ukrainian Armed Forces will not leave Donbas, even if ordered to do so. It is not the leadership sitting in the trenches, but our boys. Only they can decide.”
This is a very alarming sign, because when the military does not obey the orders of the commander-in-chief, they become armed rebels.
Conclusion
All this means that whatever the decision, it will be unpopular with part of Ukrainian society.
The negotiations in Florida and the Kremlin highlighted, on the one hand, this ambiguity in public opinion and, on the other, the intransigence of the Russian president.
At the same time, the US echoes Putin, demanding the complete withdrawal of the Armed Forces of Ukraine from Donbas. The Ukrainian side insists that this is impossible due to the Constitution, the realities of the front line, and the above-mentioned position of society.
Therefore, we can draw another preliminary conclusion that yet another round of negotiations has ended in nothing. And yes, this is likely to continue, because the Ukrainian front, despite the Kremlin’s narratives about Ukraine’s inevitable defeat, is holding. This means that there is something to fight for and that the war is likely to continue.
