On Wagner
After months of discussion about whether Prigozhin would pay the price for an apparent mutiny, it appears he has been killed in an airplane crash compounded with as much confusion about the incident as was often true of Prigozhin himself.
The apparent cause is still being debated, but the U.S. Pentagon said it was not from a surface-to-air missile. Locals claimed to have heard an explosion and videos released were unable to be confirmed independently. Putin however publicly said Prigozhin was dead. Prigozhin’s allies proclaimed him dead.
Yevgeny Prigozhin was Putin’s attempt at sleight of hand, prestidigitation, and bad maskirovka. Prigozhin was in command of more than just Wagner PMC, the supposed private mercenary army. He was in command of more than the large troll factory from St. Petersburg. These were the obvious roles, but not the most important role. Prigozhin served as the bark dog against the Russian Military itself.
Putin will throw his generals to the dogs before admitting error. Admitting error would be the end of the Putin era. Prigozhin’s role all along was to help confuse the source of action. He was behind the invasion of Crimea in 2014 with ‘little green men’, the forces that operated without emblem, rank, or known authority. He was part of the undermining of Ukrainian authorities in Donbas as his forces ‘cleaned’ the resistance to Kremlin rule over the supposed “separatist” movement. His private military company, PMC, was responsible for atrocities in Ukraine, Syria, and Africa but Russia could deflect any concern for these actions by disavowing any role in Wagner PMC.
In Africa
While those fighters were focused on Ukraine, the “security measures” in Africa began which were largely focused on removing the natural resources from these failed states of Libya, the Central African Republic, Sudan, Mali, Burkina Faso, and others. In a standardized process of state capture, the Russians have reinvented colonialism in the modern era with natural resource concessions that range from 20 to 30 years on gold, diamonds, minerals, wood, and other natural resources. In exchange, the Russian forces would train and equip factions loyal to the best available power. The focus was less about the natural resource profit than displacing French, NATO, and American influence.
The apparent death of Prigozhin, Utkin, and other leaders will not change the reality in the Russian ambitions to control resources in Syria, Libya, and Africa. There are already sufficient commanders there who still perform bureaucratic roles between the Kremlin and the local African host.
Returning to Ukraine
Prigozhin’s guys were very busy in Africa operating as security forces when Putin decided to launch the full-scale invasion on February 24, 2022. Of the thousands of fighters in Africa and Syria, there were approximately 400 Wagner fighters sent to Kyiv to assassinate Zelenskyy in the opening assault on Kyiv. But the largest fighting force remained abroad.
Then came the call for 1 000 fighters from Libya and Syria to head to Ukraine before ultimately, thousands of Wagner forces were transferred, recruited, and directed to Ukraine most notably in the months-long destruction of Bakhmut.
The bark dog and pack leader
In Ukraine, however, there are other realities for Wagner PMC forces and commanders. Without Prigozhin as their populist figure, these fighters have only a choice to join the fight or die like the other conscripts. It has been demonstrated that more qualified Wagner fighters make roughly three times the pay of standard Russian forces. They will probably get better equipment, if possible, but otherwise, they will be without a champion for their cause and the morale will be low like that of the regular forces.
Prigozhin’s history of championing his fighters as heroes stands alone compared to the other Russian forces. The Wagner fighters were the only Russian forces who had a vocal champion during the past year and a half. Prigozhin funded propaganda films to celebrate Wagner forces in the Central African Republic and Ukraine. He made them out to appear as action heroes fighting evil.
Prigozhin’s rhetoric deeply rooted itself in ‘us versus them’ rhetoric with the Wagner forces lauded as the most advanced, most deserving, and most dedicated forces. He would scream at the camera with demands for ammunition and respect. His anger seethed in every statement after September 2022 as he continued to verbally taunt Shoigu and Gerasimov.
Prigozhin grew bold enough to make a fateful appearance of power with a caravan of Wagner fighters headed to Moscow before stopping short 150 km outside of town and then disappearing as if it never happened. After the short event, at least 13 Russian service members were dead, and helicopters and planes were shot down including an Il-22M command center plane.
In the online chatter of his forces, they see him as their guy who fights for resources and respect. That is gone now. But the sentiment that is currently loudest on Telegram and VK channels shows us there is deep animosity to both Putin and his generals.
What next for Ukraine?
For Ukraine, this changes little for the time being as Wagner was never a huge distraction for Ukrainian forces. It could lead to more clarity for observers who make distinctions between Wagner force actions and Russian soldiers.
Current fighters have stated they don’t make distinctions between the two forces on the battlefield. It will not improve the Russian potential for carrying out more war on Ukraine. Should the situation within the Russian military further deteriorate however due to infighting from the more experienced and better-treated Wagner fighters and common conscripts, then Russia will have a long fight ahead as it chews itself raw from its own corruption.
Chris Sampson
NatSecMedia
August 25, 2023
