Despite all the objective concerns of Western [Ukrainian] partners regarding Putin’s visit to Asia, one should not despair but simply look objectively at the hybrid consequences. North Korea and the signing of joint documents is more a victory for the dictatorial regime of Kim than a victory for Putin’s diplomacy. Few people will remember now, but 20 years ago, Putin was given a standing ovation by the German Bundestag (Parliament). And now, following the best examples of Soviet surrealism, the North Koreans, enslaved by the dictatorship, wave flags that are probably foreign to them. Instead of handshakes with a big seven — hugs with an outcast.
Such a degradation to a conscious equating oneself with a rogue country is only the visible part. Simple and completely transparent. However, the hybrid implications are much more profound and more vital.
First, North Korean bluff and profit. It is worth mentioning that China considers North Korea as its proxy satellite, which, in fact, is already the economic owner [economic beneficiary] of Russia. Therefore, it is not a fact that China would like to see Russia’s influence strengthened, where China considers itself to be the full-fledged and main ruler. Are Putin and his diplomatic clique able to skilfully circumvent these risks? Hardly. They were not even able to avoid a shameful removal from the hall in North Korea, somewhere to a much more difficult China. And Putin’s next visit to Vietnam should only increase this risk. Is there already a victory for Putin? Hardly.
The second consequence is the weakening of Russia. Technology in exchange for artillery rounds and the promise of people. These military technologies can fall into the hands of Russia’s opponents, which Russia itself does not want. On the other hand, this is a trap that Russia cannot avoid because it needs shells right here and now. And the consequences of technology will be possible later. What will definitely not happen is North Korean soldiers at the front. After last year’s visit, Russia did receive shells, but not people, despite all the promises. The same will follow, multiplied by the risk of relations with China.
The third is Kim Jong Un himself. His sense of himself is already great. Now, you can not stand on your knees before China, but you can try to play the role of the great ruler of Korea. Premature and misleading. However, he will try to become “bigger” than Putin. And that means more concessions from Russia and less action from North Korea.
Finally, there is South Korea, which, before this visit, did not participate in helping Ukraine. But this very visit has already opened the door for policy changes.
In conclusion, despite the efforts of the Russians to sell Putin’s big victory, the Asian visit so far looks like a big gamble with a negative result overall. The hybrid loss of Russian diplomacy in the perspective of the coming years. And this is the main conclusion that should be drawn from the results of this action.
By Petro Andryushchenko
*These opinions are solely those of the author. The Ukrainian Review takes no position and is not responsible for the author’s words.
Petro Andryushchenko was an adviser to the mayor of Mariupol. After the Russian Federation started war in Ukraine in February 2022, he became the de facto “voice” of Mariupol.
On his Telegram channel, “Andryushchenko Time“, he tells the truth about the horrors of the occupation, the deportation of people by the Russian occupants and the “filtration” camps in Donbas.
Stanislav Kinka adapted this text for The Ukrainian Review.
