Military analysts outline three primary scenarios for the development of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2026. The conflict remains a test of resource endurance and international political will. This was reported by the Wall Street Journal.
Scenario 1: Сontinuation of the war
The most likely scenario involves the war continuing into its fifth year while negotiations go in circles. The Kremlin remains confident that the Ukrainian military will break before the Russian economy collapses. Ukraine, for its part, has the resources to fight and fears that surrendering the Donetsk and Luhansk regions would only provide a springboard for a new invasion. Both sides fear that the U.S. could cause harm if Trump becomes angry over the stalemate. Ukraine still needs U.S. intelligence and support, while Russia is vulnerable to tougher sanctions. Each side seeks to show Trump they are acting constructively.
Scenario 2: Exhaustion of the AFU
The greatest risk for Kyiv is that its army eventually becomes exhausted. Dedicated soldiers have fought for years without rest, and unenthusiastic recruits increasingly desert. If Ukraine exhausts its forces, it may have to agree to a deal that is difficult to endure. This could involve meeting Moscow’s territorial demands, limiting Ukrainian military strength, and restoring Russian influence over life in the country, with only weak security guarantees from the U.S.
Scenario 3: Russian Stagnation
The third scenario focuses on the degradation of the Russian home front. Low oil prices and Ukrainian strikes on refineries put significant pressure on the Kremlin’s budget. Russian business elites expressed dissatisfaction with the military-heavy economy and over-reliance on China. Although Vladimir Putin currently ignores internal dissent, Russia cannot sustain this intensity indefinitely. Strict enforcement of international sanctions could accelerate Moscow’s interest in a genuine peace process.
“However, Russia cannot continue its war indefinitely. Tougher sanctions and enforcement measures could shorten this timeframe,” the Wall Street Journal concluded.
Earlier, The Ukrainian Review reported on the official U.S. positions regarding security guarantees and territorial issues.
At the same time, on the evening of January 27, Russian drones attacked a passenger train, resulting in civilian fatalities.
