The United States continues to support Ukraine in its liberation war against the Russian aggressor, but is this support enough to completely defeat the enemy? Newsweek published interesting and very ambiguous, in some ways conspiratorial material, which analyzes the current situation and its vision by American special services with reference to its own sources.
Moderators of war
The key message of this article is that the CIA is not sure of the intentions of both Vladimir Putin and Volodymyr Zelenskyy, so the US has chosen a so-called “cautious” strategy. “Putin’s back is really against the wall” – Newsweek quotes its anonymous source in military intelligence. According to journalists, a high-ranking employee of the department noted that taking into account the military failures in Ukraine and the attempt to raise a rebellion in the middle of Russia by the “Wagner” PMC, it is quite difficult to predict the actions of the Russian president. Joe Biden’s administration is worried about the risks of a nuclear attack and the spread of war to other states, so it is not going to threaten the very existence of the Russian Federation.
Newsweek, citing unnamed national security officials, notes that Washington and Moscow have years of experience working together on a kind of code of conduct. At the same time, the CIA plays the role of both a negotiator and a scout. And most importantly, the department is the guarantor that the war will not get out of control. “There is a clandestine war, with clandestine rules, underlying all of what is going on in Ukraine,” says the publication’s source. This, in particular, is related to the regular visits to Kyiv of the head of the intelligence agency William Burns (as well as the former US ambassador to Russia – author), which other sources, including The Washington Post, write about.
According to the authors of the material, the CIA organizes support for Ukraine in such a way as not to violate the guarantees of the Joe Biden administration to the Kremlin. In other words, US support for Ukraine comes at a price. If we assume that the information published by Newsweek is true, then these facts can easily explain, for example, why some types of weapons available in the Armed Forces do not work against military facilities on the territory of Russia and on the territories of Ukraine occupied until February 24, 2022. Or why the Ukrainian army has not moved an inch from the borders at the time of the full-scale invasion. Some seemingly strange things become quite logical. Although there may be other explanations for this that are not available to the general public.
Was there a visit by Burns to Moscow?
If we take all of the above as true, the information about the visit of William Burns to Moscow in January 2023, which was reported by the Swiss publication Neue Zürcher Zeitung, does not seem so impossible. In particular, at that time it was said that the head of the CIA presented a peace plan according to which Russia receives approximately 20% of the territory of Ukraine in exchange for guarantees of peace. A corresponding document was offered to Volodymyr Zelenskyy. That is, the scheme looked like this: for Ukraine – land for peace, for Russia – peace for land. However, according to the publication’s sources, both parties refused such an option.
Later, both the White House and the Kremlin denied information about such negotiations, which is not surprising. However, against the background of activation in various publications of the topic of possible concessions by Ukraine on its territories, this information looks rather alarming. Therefore, so that some Western leaders do not have unnecessary temptations, it is worth recalling the clear position of the Ukrainian military-political leadership: we do not trade our lands, the occupied territories cannot be the subject of peace negotiations.
Expert opinions
However, experts are rather skeptical of insider information from journalists of the above-mentioned respected publications, appealing to the facts of the close connection between Ukrainian and American intelligence.
Oleksandra Reshmedilova, Doctor of Philosophy, leading analyst at the Public Diplomacy Foundation:
“In the Newsweek article, the key phrase is ‘How much does the CIA know?’ I am sure that the purpose of William Burns’ face-to-face visit to Kyiv in June [2023] testifies to the close relationship between Ukraine and the USA in the field of intelligence exchange. If the USA did not have enough information, I do not think that such a visit would have taken place. There is a personal understanding of the situation and, so to speak, personal control. Regarding the role of the United States in general. The presence of Joe Biden in Kyiv (it was an unannounced visit too) emphasizes that there is confidence that the US president is not in danger here. That is, there is a high-quality interaction of the special services of the two countries.
Regarding the plans of the USA and the collective West in general for the future of the Russian Federation. No matter what information is leaked to the press, it will still not fully correspond to reality. This is a secret strategic vision. Some semitones, some tones may appear, but these issues are worked out very deeply in order to become known to the general public.
Regarding Burns’ secret visit to Moscow. If he was in Kyiv, why couldn’t he be in Moscow? This is the first. But! Secondly, if the visit is secret, then such showers are extremely unprofitable. At least such information cannot be perceived as completely reliable. If it is a shower, then most likely it is a test of public reactions. Could this be one of the versions of the negotiations [20% of Ukraine’s territories in exchange for peace — ed.]? I am not ruling out anything at all now. The question is different. During the visit of Ukrainian parliamentarians to Washington, [Davyd] Arakhamia said that negotiations are possible no earlier than August. Which ones will depend on the military success and behavior of the Russian Federation? This suggests that contact between the US and Russia is possible. Between Ukraine and Russia, judging by this statement, too. Now we can say that the visit of Burns, the visit of Ukrainian deputies, Saudi Arabia, Turkey are all links of the big negotiation process. And until its final stage, the road maps will change repeatedly depending on the situation”.
Chris Sampson, Editor of National Security Media, USA
“There are problems in some of his assessments. I don’t accept the “near mutiny” story. I think it was a maskirovka [ disguise – ed.] and more of a mutiny between Yevgeny Prigozhin and Gerasimov/Shoigu. Putin uses Prigozhin to emphasize the criticism of failures as the fault of the Ministry of Defense. But the larger “Putin can’t collapse” or “Russia can’t collapse” is also a problem. Putin invaded because he saw what happened in the last Belarus elections. He knows his days are numbered and needed a war to build support and show might.
the CIA negotiating etc… I think the CIA will play both sides to keep the war from expanding, yes. I think the CIA knows Zelenskyy and Zaluzhny are quite capable of launching Drones and attacks back on Russia and yes, demanding limitations for further help will happen.
The United States will always look at Ukraine and other countries as “small” vs “big” in planning. But the United States does understand that Ukraine is actually an ally. It may not have understood this as much before February 2022”.
Conclusions
The United States, by supporting Ukraine, is certainly serving its own interests. Only time will tell how broad this support will be in the future. In any case, you need to be extremely careful with unofficial information, especially with reference to anonymous sources. Even if we are talking about respectable publications that have their insiders in the highest power cabinets. Ukraine has a clear position and will continue to be consistent in the issue of the liberation of all its territories.
Kostyantyn Grechany
