Russia’s armed forces buildup is part of Russia’s long-term goal, which goes beyond the war in Ukraine and aims to increase the size and overall capabilities of the Russian army through long-term, large-scale reforms of the armed forces, Suspilne reports.
This is stated in an analytical report by the American Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
As noted in the ISW, these reforms have been underway since the beginning of 2023 and include the restoration of the Moscow and Leningrad military districts and the formation of new army corps, combined arms armies, as well as mechanized and airborne divisions.
It is noted that Russia’s current military reforms largely reverse the main principles of former Russian Defense Minister Anatoly Serdyukov’s 2008-2012 reforms, which reduced the size of the Russian armed forces from 1.3 million to 1 million troops, and strengthened and centralized command and control, eliminating division-level echelons in favor of brigade-level units.
As the Russian military begins to form new divisions, army corps, and armies, their manning levels should increase in parallel, at least on paper. However, Russia’s ability to properly implement these reforms and integrate the increase in combat personnel depends in part on its conduct of the war in Ukraine, – the ISW emphasized.
Medium- and long-term force generation constraints and economic constraints will continue to impair Russia’s ability to sustain its military buildup and properly implement its planned reforms, the report says.
On September 16, Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a decree setting the size of the Russian Armed Forces at 1.5 million personnel, the analysts reminded. This is 180 thousand more people than the last decree to increase the size of the Russian Armed Forces, which Putin signed in December 2023. The decree of December 2023 increased the number of combat personnel by 170,000 compared to August 2022. This means that since 2022, the target number of Russian armed forces has increased by about 350,000.
The decree of September 16 will come into force on December 1, 2024, which means that Russian military authorities will intensify recruitment and formation efforts to reach the 1.5 million combat troops target starting in December 2024. This decree, in particular, is not an indicator of a new wave of Russian mobilization – rather, it covers a wide range of recruitment methods currently used by the Russian army, – the analysts noted.
It is noted that in December 2022, former Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu first set a goal of 1.5 million combat personnel, noting that this figure includes a target of 695,000 contract soldiers.
