The Central Bank of Russia recorded a sharp drop in its business climate indicator to 0.2 points in February 2026. This figure marks the lowest level since October 2022, following the announcement of “partial mobilization.” Russian enterprises are significantly lowering their assessments of the current situation due to falling demand and rising costs amid the prolonged full-scale war against Ukraine.
This was reported by The Moscow Times. According to the regulator’s report, business assessments of the current state fell to -7.8 points. This is the minimum value since May 2022. Analysts note that domestic consumer demand remains the only driver allowing the aggressor’s economy to avoid a recession.
Crisis beyond the military-industrial complex
Despite the militarization of industry, overall GDP growth slowed to 1% by the end of last year. The Russian economic model currently resembles the letter “K.” Growth occurs only in sectors related to military orders. Specifically, the PMI index has shown a decline in manufacturing since mid-last year, as it excludes the defense sector. Meanwhile, civilian sectors show a steady decline.
The Central Bank’s monitoring also showed a noticeable decrease in cash flows across most major economic groups at the beginning of the year. Promsvyazbank analysts note that investment activity remains on pause, and the external sector is under threat. The situation remains highly segmented, and the problem of economic “overcooling” is becoming increasingly relevant for the aggressor.
High war expenditures and sanction pressure have begun to seriously threaten financial stability. The number of companies increasing output is now lower than those cutting it. This indicates the exhaustion of resources that previously allowed the system to show resilience even under conditions of international isolation.
Earlier, The Ukrainian Review reported that Ukrainian drones and missiles attacked Russian enterprises, arsenals, and depots supporting the war against Ukraine.
