Former US intelligence official Eugene Rumer says Russian President Vladimir Putin may try to use a “window of opportunity” for a potential conflict with NATO countries. Analysts discuss this scenario amid Russia’s military difficulties and shifting political dynamics in Europe.
The Washington Post reported this, citing an analytical paper by the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and comments from its experts.
Why experts warn about the risk
Rumer says the Kremlin faces a difficult situation: Russian forces suffer heavy losses in Ukraine and fail to achieve major breakthroughs. Against this backdrop, Putin may look for ways to project strength, including escalation against the West.
He argues that Moscow still sees Europe as a key theater, while the war against Ukraine forms part of a broader confrontation. In his view, the Kremlin already treats Europe as a party to the conflict.
Analysts also point to a so-called “window of opportunity,” driven by several factors:
- Europe has not yet completed rearmament;
- Ukraine continues to build long-range capabilities;
- US policy under Donald Trump toward NATO remains unpredictable.
Another Carnegie analyst, Michael Kofman, notes that the pace of Russia’s offensive is slowing, while losses may have reached tens of thousands of troops in March alone. This makes it harder for Moscow to sustain the war at the same intensity.
Rumer also suggests that in the event of escalation, Russia could attempt to attack a Baltic state to test NATO’s Article 5.
Context
Amid these assessments, Russia has already intensified its rhetoric toward Europe. Moscow has threatened countries that supply weapons to Ukraine, including drones.
Earlier, The Ukrainian Review reported that Volodymyr Zelenskyy spoke about Russia’s plans to expand troop groupings and continue offensive operations in Donbas.
