Some European officials fear that Russia could exploit uncertainty within NATO and the EU to open another front. In this scenario, the Baltic states could become the next targets.
Details
According to Politico, European governments are increasingly concerned that Russian President Vladimir Putin may launch an attack on NATO countries in the near future. The timeframe under discussion ranges from one to two years. During this period, he could also intensify pressure on the West.
At the same time, the Kremlin may see a “window of opportunity.” Political uncertainty in the West plays a key role here. The United States is dealing with the consequences of its operation against Iran, while Europe is in the process of rearming. Meanwhile, Russia continues its full-scale war against Ukraine. Although its resources are gradually depleting, Moscow shows no intention of backing down.
Finnish official Mika Aaltola warns that Russia could take advantage of weakening cohesion within NATO. In addition, the EU is not yet fully prepared to defend itself without US support.
“Something could happen very soon – there is a Russian window of opportunity. The U.S. is withdrawing from Europe, transatlantic relations are in a shambles, and the EU is not yet fully ready to take on the responsibilities by themselves,” Aaltola said.
However, officials stress that Russia may not necessarily launch a direct invasion of NATO countries. Instead, it could carry out limited operations or hybrid attacks. According to Aaltola, the goal of such actions would be to create division within NATO, particularly over whether these actions meet the threshold for triggering Article 5 on collective defense.
Possible scenarios
Some politicians suggest that Russia could attack another neighboring country in parallel. This could help Moscow avoid negotiations with Ukraine.
“It could be a small psychological thing that makes us scared, if Putin feels that kind of escalation makes us weaker and makes us feel threatened and reduces support for Ukraine,” said Ville Niinistö, a European official. He added that Russia is not all-powerful, but desperation itself can be dangerous.
Finland and Lithuania remain particularly concerned about a potential Russian attack. Estonia, however, supports a more cautious approach and warns that panic could benefit Putin. NATO broadly shares this position.
At the same time, Aaltola emphasized that downplaying the threat could create a false sense of security in Europe. As a result, governments might pay less attention to defense.
Baltic States
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy previously said in an interview that Russia could be preparing to attack one of the Baltic states. According to officials in Kyiv, Putin may target them because of their strong support for Ukraine. However, Baltic leaders themselves reject this threat.
“Russia is very busy in Ukraine. I don’t think it has enough capacity to try,” Estonian President Alar Karis told Politico.
Many NATO and European officials support this view. Nevertheless, they stress the need to remain vigilant, as no scenario can be completely ruled out.
Earlier, The Ukrainian Review reported that Putin has grown increasingly concerned about a possible assassination attempt or coup, prompting the Kremlin to tighten security measures. European intelligence confirmed this information.
