On July 20, 2023, the Ministry of Defense of Belarus reported on joint exercises with the Russian private military company Wagner (PMC Wagner) at the “Brestskiy” training ground near the Polish border.
The day before, a video appeared on the network in which the heads of the PMC Wagner, Yevgeny Prigozhin and Dmitry Utkin, speak to mercenaries and promise to make the Belarusian armed forces “the second army of the world” and to stand on the side of the President of Belarus, Alexander Lukashenko, in the event of any armed conflicts.
However, the situation continues to escalate: the self-proclaimed President of Belarus, Lukashenko, during a meeting with the President of the Russian Federation, Vladimir Putin, on July 23, 2023, stated that the fighters of Wagner are “stressing” him because they want to attack Poland:
“Perhaps I shouldn’t have said that. But I will say that the Wagnerites began to “tense” us. They are begging to the west: “Allow us!”. I say: “Why are you going west there?” “Well, let’s go on an excursion to Warsaw and Rzeszów.”
In response, Poland increased border security and launched a training operation on the border with Belarus. In addition, Polish Defense Minister Mariusz Błaszczak said that he has no doubt that provocations from the Belarusian side will increase, and Warsaw will respond to them.
Latvia has also strengthened security measures on the border with Belarus. The country also said that Minsk is helping migrants cross the Latvian border illegally.
According to the State Border Guard Service of Ukraine, as of July 22, 2023, there are approximately 5,000 Russian mercenaries of PMC Wagner in Belarus.
We talked with Stanislav Zhelikhovskyi, Ph.D. in Political Science, an international expert, about why Putin and Lukashenko threaten Poland and Latvia, and what influence the Wagnerites will have on the war in Ukraine on the territory of Belarus.
What is the purpose of Putin and Lukashenko threatening Poland and Lithuania?
“Officially, Minsk hopes to use the Wagnerians to train its own army. It should be understood that the main director of this is the Russian Federation, which sent this detachment [to the territory of Belarus, — ed.]. This was done in order to keep such countries as Poland and Lithuania under tension. It should be understood that the presence of Wagnerites in Belarus gives Russia and the authorities of Belarus additional tools for hybrid influence on NATO countries.
Wagnerites can be used for border provocations against Polish services, and it is possible to use various types of weapons or tools that can destroy the defensive structures that have been built by Warsaw in recent years. Here I will remind you that [Warsaw, — ed.] started building various physical and electronic barriers starting in the fall of 2021 when the migration crisis began. It should be understood that this was a prelude to a full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine.
The goal may also be to force Poland to be more focused on the protection of its border voivodships, so that penetration [into the territory, — ed.] is not carried out. Migratory pressure is now increasing on the border with Poland, there are clashes between different types of migrants (or at least those who claim that they want to enter the EU). We have already seen broken equipment, in particular vehicles of the Polish Border Service.
Actually, the Wagnerites can now be used as training staff for these migrants, and this will be a more professional penetration into the territory of Poland.
The Wagnerites can also recruit these people in the territories of African or Middle Eastern countries, where they have been present for many years. By the way, these may not necessarily be civilians but maybe those who have come to hostilities, for example, in Syria or Mali and other countries where there are hot spots. Therefore, this migration crisis can be of completely different quality (better for the enemy who plans to destabilize the situation).
This could be a new round of hybrid warfare, a new phase. Which, by the way, is what Polish high-ranking officials are talking about, including Vice Prime Minister Jarosław Kaczyński, who is also the leader of the ruling party in Poland.
The goal is clear — to distract from Ukraine, from helping Ukraine, to put pressure on Warsaw and Vilnius so that these states are helpless and focus more on the situation near their northeastern borders.
Here I will also add the Kaliningrad region: the official Warsaw is also very closely monitoring the situation there.
High-ranking officials of Belarus and the Russian Federation do not hide their intentions, they state that they can create various provocations, in particular in this Suvalkі Gap, which separates the Baltic countries from the rest of the member states of the Alliance”.
Can the Wagnerites change the situation at the front in Ukraine?
“Of course, despite the fact that they (the Wagnerites, – ed.) can carry out hybrid attacks on our partner countries, they can still carry out hybrid attacks on Ukraine as well. This is also stated by Polish high-ranking officials (in particular, Jarosław Kaczyński). We should not rule out that this may be aimed at distracting Ukraine from the counteroffensive operation in the South and East of our country. We must understand that there may be some kind of invasion of the same “migrants” (in quotation marks, since these may not be the persons seeking asylum, especially in Ukraine), but there may also be attempts by Russia, through the Wagnerites, to keep the Lukashenko regime, to have leverage on it and, if necessary, to involve, for example, the armed forces of Belarus against Ukraine from the north.
We must understand that if there is any critical situation for the Kremlin, then it can attract all these powers through mercenaries and through the Belarusian military (which, by the way, had no combat experience, and now they can get it from these mercenaries, who have already hotspots have arrived not only in Ukraine, but also in the countries of the African continent, Latin America, and the countries of the Middle East). This cannot be ruled out either, so Ukraine should monitor it (I think this is how everything is done). It is necessary to observe what is happening and also coordinate all this with our Western partners, with NATO, as well as with individual countries (here it is, first of all, Poland, and Lithuania), and with joint efforts to oppose these hybrid actions carried out by the Russian Federation and its satellite republic of Belarus”.
Chris Sampson, Editor of , also shared his thoughts on this topic with The Ukrainian Review:
“I believe that it is a distraction. I think of the distraction as a taunt to NATO. We know that there’s no way Russia can fight against NATO powers. It’s just simply not going to happen. And Russia knows that there’s no chance Moscow could face the NATO powers.
That’s been the whole reason for their actions all year. Everything is about, you know, we will nuke London, we will do that. But we know that the Ukrainian army with minimal support from the West – but there’s already been delivering lots of Russian bodies.
Russia loses, and Belarus loses. But distraction is a very big part of Russian doctrine. I am very used to Prigozhin lying. They said there are 7 000 Wagnerians in Belarus. So, the low number I saw was 3 900 [personnel] two days ago [i.e. August 6, — ed.] from a kind of a good intelligence source. It’s public. So, I think that it’s somewhere between 4-5 thousand maybe, but I don’t believe that there are 7 000. But let’s just assume he’s telling the truth. They still won’t do anything.
You know, they said Polish authorities said that hundred Wagner fighters came near the border – okay. But for attention purposes, if we’re paying attention there, there’s somewhere else we’re not paying attention and unless we know not to do that. So that’s why I’m saying that to me, it’s a distraction, and partially it could be a bit of a distraction towards the situation in Africa. But I think it’s primarily a distraction here.
We know that the Ukrainian forces have really fortified the north corridors. So, they can’t just come on in again. It’s not going to happen that way. They’ll die trying. But it’s a distraction to be able to have your camps over there and training.
And, you know, two years ago Belarus bragged that they arrested 33 Wagner fighters and that the Wagner was going for instability. And that’s possible because Belarus after the last election, you know, is still in transition, even though Lukashenko holds power. So, having Wagner there, I think is more about giving him the appearance of strength when it’s not really substantially there.
Ukraine’s not going to invade other people’s territory. So, it’s more about appearance. And you know, I think of Belarus right now as Western Russia at the moment. So how many fighters is one thing. But also I am watching to see how many members of Wagner were really, really mad at Shoigu and Gerasimov, the Ministry of Defense, and all that. If they’re given enough income to say, look, your income doesn’t change, just fight. You know they’ll stay with the forces in the South and the East. They don’t have a reason not to be earning their money, and the money was coming from the Russian Federation anyway. So that’s my reading.”
Can Wagnerian-Belarussian military drills change the situation on the front in Ukraine?
“Not really, because I’m watching. I mean, some of what they do is publicly viewable and it’s stupid. I’m not even a military guy. And I watch this thing, and think what is this? This is nothing. I’m looking to see how much force the Russian Ministry of Defense is actually sending further down and the quality of the forces. So not just the numbers, but the quality. And I have some American friends along with Ukrainian friends in various parts of the front. Across there, a lot of the forces from Russia are already deployed, and there are enough forces there to keep everyone busy. I don’t think Wagner percentage-wise really matters.
They are looking at the stability in Africa. One of the things I don’t have the number down yet, but I’m working on it, is the range of fighters that Wagner actually has in the various countries in Africa. Prigozhin sent 1 200 fighters to Africa. I don’t think that’s accurate. I think it’s got to be above 2 000, maybe below 3 000, but it’s hard to tell exactly. And you know it’s how it affects the fight here. We don’t have a repeat of Bakhmut going on right now. We don’t have another location where all local strength is in that location right now. Not related to Wagner, but related to Russian forces. Yes, but that’s where I’m at now.”
Not having significant success at the front, Russia is trying to find any opportunity to divert the world’s attention from the front in Ukraine. And he does it in his usual style — insidiously, not disrespecting any world order and laws.
Anya Ostymchuk
