Trump looked exhausted and irritated after meeting with Putin in Alaska. He also said that he would consider renewing threats of immediate sanctions against Russia only if the trilateral talks did not bring progress towards peace. The symbolic gesture was the cancellation of the traditional lunch and communication with journalists. Trump was clearly dissatisfied because he could not achieve a quick ceasefire, at least in the air.
After that, various media outlets began to show official photos of the preparations for the summit in Anchorage, it becomes clear that everything did not go according to plan, although Trump is trying to convince us otherwise until the last moment. Ukrainian journalists and military write that the US President has nevertheless taken the side of Russia, he is ready to abandon the ceasefire in favor of a comprehensive agreement on a complete end to the war.
As we have heard repeatedly, Ukrainian President Zelenskyy refused to give up Donbas during negotiations with Trump and European leaders. At the same time, European leaders and Trump discussed possible “Article 5” security guarantees for Ukraine outside of NATO as part of a potential peace deal.
European leaders have rightly fully sided with Ukraine on this issue and have vowed to continue supporting Ukraine. There should be no restrictions on Ukraine’s armed forces or its cooperation with third countries. Moscow cannot have a veto on Ukraine’s accession process to the EU or NATO.
EU and British leaders have ruled out any restrictions on arms supplies to Kyiv. Nevertheless, on Sunday morning, Reuters shared details of Putin’s proposal to end the war in Ukraine. It should be noted right away that at this moment it looks completely unrealistic, if not to use the forbidden word… surrender. Putin states that there will definitely be no ceasefire until a comprehensive agreement is reached.
The Russian dictator wants Kyiv to completely withdraw its troops from the Donetsk and Luhansk regions, while Russia will freeze the front lines in the Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions.
One thing can be said: this will not happen. In the Donbas, over the 11 years of war, Ukraine has built the strongest fortifications in Europe, which the Russian horde has never been able to overcome. Giving up this “wall” means opening a direct path for the occupiers in the future to Zaporizhzhia, Kharkiv, and Central Ukraine. Any Ukrainian government that signs this will make itself a political suicide in the eyes of the Ukrainian people.
Putin also offers to return control over the parts of Sumy and Kharkiv regions to Ukraine. If at the same time it is still necessary to solemnly give up the Donbas, then it will be an unequal exchange. Putin demands to “surrender” to him 15 times more territories than he is ready to return to Ukraine.
This concerns the unoccupied part of Donbas, which is about 6600 km²: in return, Russia will return to Zelenskyy Sumy and Kharkiv regions, the area of which is ~440 km². Then come more obvious points such as: formal recognition of Russian sovereignty over Crimea, lifting at least part of the sanctions against Russia, Ukraine will be banned from joining NATO.
Trump has repeatedly said that Ukraine will not be in NATO, sanctions may be lifted, and the proposal to recognize Crimea has long been discussed in the corridors of the White House. Therefore, there are no surprises here. But still, the point about the official status of the Russian language in some parts of Ukraine or throughout Ukraine, as well as the right of the Russian Orthodox Church to operate freely, is interesting. This will be a real blow to Ukraine’s current European path, but it is worth noting that the population of a long-suffering country is still ready to make certain concessions, just so that their relatives and friends don’t die…
The visit of the European leaders and Zelenskyy went surprisingly positively in the Oval Office, without any disputes like last time. JD Vance: I told Zelenskyy: “As long as you behave well, I won’t say anything.” He laughed, and that was a good impetus to solving the problem.
From global trends and actions, it follows that all sides are simply trying to politically outlive Trump. Russia is not interested in any negotiations, they are simply playing along with the US President and doing everything possible to appease him.
Europe needs another 1.5-2 years to rearm, and Ukraine plays a key role here, because it is a barrier and buys time for our partners at the cost of the best representatives of its population…
Next year, elections to the U.S. Congress will take place, and the outcome remains unpredictable at this point. Everything will depend on the foreign policy track and on how effectively Trump can address domestic issues within the country. For him, this will be a serious challenge, and he may try to withdraw from the war by stating that he has done everything possible, but that “the Ukrainians/Russians do not want peace.” It will be important for him to shift the focus to internal matters.
And what will happen next with the war? It will continue. There is no point at which both sides can converge right now. The imperialist spirit of the aggressor state has not disappeared, Putin thinks that everything is fine at the front. So why stop?
And yet, everything is not so good in the Russian economy. Will it last long? 1.5-2 years of war are still for sure. Is this better for Ukraine, in some respects yes, but in another, when the hunters kill the bear, the dead victim of this beast is no longer important what happens next…
The West is encircling Russia, preparing the Baltics, the Black Sea region, Central Asia in order to set fire to Russia, but for this we still need to prepare. And unfortunately, Ukraine is that trap with a victim that holds the muzzle of the beast.
The talks in Alaska did take place, but we do not know all the agreements that may have been reached between Trump and Putin. Only in the coming steps on the geopolitical chessboard will we see the real outcome of these negotiations. However, it is already clear that things did not go the way Trump had hoped: Putin did not agree even to limited aerial ceasefires. It is also important to note that Uitkoff, who represented the American side, lacked the years of diplomatic experience needed to conduct truly high-quality and effective negotiations with Putin.
Yermak says that in 1000 days of war, Russia captured only 1% of Ukraine, suffering huge losses. We must understand: we do not lose, and Russia does not win. The positive thing is that Trump promised Zelenskyy to work to ensure that Hungary does not block Ukraine’s accession to the EU. Potentially 30 coalition countries are ready to consider participating in the guarantees; not all are ready for “boots on the ground”.
The President of Ukraine is confident that bilateral and trilateral meetings are possible; if Russia is not ready, sanctions are proposed. But Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov has already stated that the Russian Federation has proposed to raise the level of the heads of delegations in negotiations with Ukraine. No meeting between Putin and Zelenskyy is visible on the horizon.
There have already been many options for cities to hold the Putin-Zelenskyy summit, from Rome and Geneva to Istanbul and even Moscow. Some analysts write about China as a potential meeting place, but the 25th solemn SCO summit will soon be held, and XI would not want Ukraine and Russia to overshadow all preparations and meetings with various leaders, even in his worst nightmare. And Trump will not allow the title of peacemaker to be taken away from him and given to the main enemy, China.
Conclusion
A meeting between Putin and Zelenskyy can only take place after the Trump administration exerts pressure on Russia to make concessions in the negotiation process. If such a meeting does happen, it will be a victory for Ukraine, since Putin will no longer be able to claim the “illegitimacy” of the Ukrainian leadership or argue that Ukraine is an “artificial state.”
This war will last for many years. Even in the event of a “frozen” conflict, we will face a situation similar to the divided Koreas: constant tension and no final resolution. Russia, in any case, will return to aggression in a few years, because its current ideology is built on the destruction of the so-called “existential threat” embodied by Ukraine. Only after a generational change in Russia’s political leadership, if they recognize their mistakes, might there be, perhaps years from now, a chance for some kind of constructive dialogue between the two countries.
According to recent surveys, 74% of Ukrainians believe that victory in this war means the end of massive missile attacks, the return of all captured children, the return of all prisoners of war, and the complete cessation of the war. People are tired of the war; they want to live normal lives. At the same time, Ukraine needs clear and reliable security guarantees that will prevent a new war in the future. We do not need another Budapest Memorandum.
The optimal option for ending this war at the current stage is freezing hostilities along the existing front line, provided that Ukraine receives clear and guaranteed mechanisms of security.
Team of The Ukrainian Review
