Despite international isolation, the authoritarian regime of Alexander Lukashenko continues to successfully find ways to circumvent EU sanctions and trade with European countries. According to The Ukrainian Review, the Belarusian authorities use shadowy schemes to export products to the European Union, providing economic support for the regime.
One of the key areas of illegal exports is timber. Investigative journalists from Ukraine, Poland, and Belarus have found that Belarusian timber is often imported to Poland under the guise of products from Kazakhstan, using forged documents. At the same time, according to official statistics, in 2023 alone, Poland imported more than $55 million worth of products from Belarus, including grains, oilseeds, and meals.
Hungary remains another significant partner of Belarus in the EU. In 2023, Belarusian exports to this country amounted to more than $114 million. This is one of the highest figures over the past decade.
The UK also did not stand aside. The UK government reported that from July 2022 to June 2023, Belarus imported more than $202 million worth of tobacco and beverages. 96% of all supplies from the totalitarian country to the UK.
Expert estimates
Experts note that the shadow economy is a systemic problem that greatly complicates the effectiveness of sanctions policy.
Lukashenko’s regime is an organized criminal group, the mafia. For decades, they have been building various smuggling schemes. This is how the regime made money by trading with both Russia and the West. Now that sanctions have been imposed, they have begun to earn even more by helping Russia circumvent these sanctions, – says Franak Viacorka, chief advisor to the duly elected President of Belarus, Svetlana Tikhanovskaya, to The Ukrainian Review.
Gennadiy Radchenko, Advisor to the Chairman of the Polish-Ukrainian Chamber of Commerce, noted that current sanctions do not ensure complete economic isolation of the aggressors.
The sanctions lists are still far from complete economic isolation of the aggressor and its supporters, which allows them to replenish the military budget, – explains Hennadiy Radchenko.
Franak Viacorka adds:
What needs to be done. First, the EU needs to introduce effective mechanisms for monitoring the implementation of sanctions; second, the states that border Belarus need resources to control the flows at customs; third, we need fast sanctions tools that would allow us to quickly close loopholes. Unless this happens, there will be no result. Because not only the Putin and Lukashenko regimes cooperate, there are loyal businesses in fully democratic countries that make money on this.
Lukashenko’s gray trade schemes allow Belarus to remain economically active, fueling the authoritarian regime. Experts emphasize that the fight against smuggling requires prompt sanctioning mechanisms, resources for border control, and effective monitoring of the implementation of restrictions.
