In the Kemerovo region (Russia), coal production in 2026 is expected to reach only 170 million tons. This would be the lowest level in the past two decades – for comparison, 256 million tons were mined here in 2018, according to the regional government, as reported by the portal NGS42.
The decline in production is attributed to falling coal prices, sanctions, logistical problems, and reduced demand for fossil fuels. Last year, 19 mines in the region were closed, and another 32 faced financial difficulties.
Impact on the Region
Andrey Panov, First Deputy Governor of the Kemerovo region, noted that due to problems in the industry, the regional budget lost over 90 billion rubles in the past two years. In 2026, another decline in revenues of 40 billion rubles is expected. Panov described this situation as a “managed tightening.”
Despite the reduction in production, regional officials forecast an increase in coal exports to 117 million tons. This could once again lead to a shortage of high-quality subsidized coal for local heating, as residents complained last year about “coal dust mixed with soil.”
Massive extraction and household use of coal negatively affect public health. Over the past 20 years, the cancer mortality rate in Kuzbass has been 1.5–2 times higher than the Russian average, and the average life expectancy of local residents is 3–4 years lower than in other regions.
Problems in Russia’s Oil Industry
In addition, crude oil production in Russia fell in December to a one-and-a-half-year low – 9.326 million barrels per day, 100,000 barrels per day less than in November.
The decline comes amid massive strikes by Ukrainian drones on Russia’s oil infrastructure, which not only limit direct production but also force the suspension or reduction of operations at refineries.
At the same time, Russian oil is accumulating in tankers at sea: after large-scale U.S. sanctions against the largest producers – Rosneft and Lukoil – some buyers are slow to accept these shipments. Additional pressure has been created by export difficulties.
Conclusion
The forecasted record-low coal production in Kuzbass in 2026 indicates serious economic and social challenges for the region. The decline in production due to sanctions, falling prices, and logistical difficulties threatens a shortage of subsidized coal and further budget revenue losses.
Parallel problems in Russia’s oil industry, including Ukrainian drone attacks and oil accumulation in tankers, further increase pressure on the country’s energy and economic situation.
