From August 22 to 24, 2023 the BRICS summit will be held in the Republic of South Africa. Among the participants will be the following countries: South Africa, Brazil, India, China, and Russia. The presence of Russian President Vladimir Putin at the meeting is being discussed the most in the media world because it could lead to his detention.
“Russian President Vladimir Putin will not attend in person the BRICS summit hosted by Johannesburg in late August [2023], his South African counterpart confirmed … halting months of speculation triggered by an arrest warrant issued against the Kremlin leader for alleged war crimes in Ukraine”, – write in CNN.
We spoke to political scientists to find out what strategic benefits this summit has for Russia and whether Putin’s presence at the meeting could actually end in detention.
Another noise or still an important political event: what is the BRICS summit and is it worth paying attention to?
First of all, it is worth explaining what BRICS is and for what purpose it was created.
BRICS – a group of the largest developing countries in terms of area and population, a term often used in economics. During 2010-2015, the specialized fund that invested in the BRICS countries decreased by eight times. In the fall of 2015, Russia and Brazil were stuck in recession, China’s growth slowed to the lowest pace since 1990, and South Africa’s economy came to a standstill. The project has completely lost its investment appeal.
Anatolii Chernysh, an expert of the Program of Russian and Belarusian Studies from the Foreign Policy Council “Ukrainian Prism”, spoke in a little more detail about BRICS:
“Formally, BRICS was created in order to unite the efforts of the member states of this association to transform the world economy in the direction of increasing the role of developing countries in it, as well as promoting the idea of multipolarity of the world system, ensuring equal conditions for development. However, in fact, this association is focused on increasing the influence and visibility of the BRICS member states in world politics, serving their interests, and is also an attempt to establish interaction between them. That is, it is an attempt to create an alternative to the “Big Seven”.
He added that although BRICS unites states that have significant human capital, weight in the world economy and reserves of natural resources, this association does have problems that are, in fact, “innate”. These are the presence of conflicts between member states (for example, the conflict between India and China over territories in the Himalayas), a noticeable difference in economic potential (for example, between Russia and China), and the absence of a specific development strategy. This is exactly what makes the effectiveness of the merger quite questionable.
“With the BRIC thesis, Goldman-Sachs claims that the economic potential of Brazil, Russia, India and China is such that they can become the four dominant economic systems by 2050. The thesis was proposed by Jim O’Neill, a global economist at Goldman Sachs. These countries occupy more than 25% of the world’s land area, 40% of the population, and have a combined gross domestic product (GDP) of $15.435 trillion,” – emphasized Dharma de Silva in an article.
This year, the 15th summit will take place in Johannesburg, and as noted by the Russian President’s spokesman Dmitry Peskov, the main topic of the meeting will be the discussion of the expansion of the group of participants.
“We believe that in one way or another, BRICS expansion will contribute to the further development and strengthening of this organization. We will discuss in what form and to what extent during the upcoming summit,” – he said.
In July 2023, South Africa said more than 40 other countries had expressed interest in joining the group, but the report did not specify which countries.
“South African officials want BRICS to champion the developing world, with Argentina, Iran, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Cuba, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Comoros, Gabon and Kazakhstan all expressing interest”, − notes Reuters.
We asked Anatolii Chernysh if BRICS expansion is a way to attract more allies to support the war with Ukraine. He answered:
“Russia is directly interested in the expansion of BRICS, as this will allow it to partially overcome international isolation and have the opportunity to influence politically and economically the new member states of the group, to convince them of the correctness of their actions, in particular, of the expediency of an aggressive war against Ukraine”.
In his opinion, the issues of Ukraine, the grain agreement and the confrontation with the West will also be discussed at the summit, but important decisions should not be expected.
“In my opinion, the topic of the Russian-Ukrainian war will be discussed at the summit (and the issue of the “grain agreement” as well), but we should not expect any significant decisions to be made in this context. Russian representatives may try to convince other participants of the summit of the need to improve economic interaction to circumvent sanctions. Also, Russia will once again have the opportunity to voice propaganda narratives about the “confrontation with the West” and the “injustice” of the existing world order. However, a significant impact of the results of the summit and agreements on the course of the war is unlikely,” – he explained.
However, this summit is still important for Russia, because, first of all, this is its way to overcome political isolation and establish economic ties.
“For Russia, this summit and participation in BRICS in general are important, first of all, as a way to overcome international isolation and increase its authority in world politics as a champion of the “multipolar” world order, which should actually serve the interests of authoritarian states and legitimize aggression, the distribution of spheres of influence. Also, Russia is interested in the possibilities of further involvement of the union in the transformation of the world economy, in order to make the situation in it more profitable for itself, to be able to bypass sanctions by establishing economic interaction with other BRICS members,” – Chernysh added.
In general, Russia can expect the following from this summit:
- Taking further steps regarding the BRICS expansion process;
- Implementation of the action plan for “de-dollarization” of the economy of the member states of the association;
- An opportunity to demonstrate that Russia still “can” influence world political processes.
Instead, countries such as Brazil, South Africa and India seek their own benefit in cooperation with Russia. They are interested in Russia as a supplier of natural and fuel resources of various types for the development of their own industry and economy in general. Politically, they can consider the Russian Federation a partner in transforming the world order towards its greater inclusiveness for developing countries. At the same time, they hardly realize the true intentions of the Russian Federation, Anatolii said.
Putin’s road to the BRICS summit is closed: why the dictator will not be able to visit South Africa
Just as South Africa hosts this year’s summit, in which Russia is a participant, in the event of Vladimir Putin’s appearance at it, it should detain him, as it is a party to the Rome Statute.
We will remind you that in March 2023, the International Criminal Court in The Hague issued an indefinite arrest warrant for the Russian dictator Vladimir Putin in connection with his involvement in the deportation of Ukrainian children. The warrant obliges member countries of the Rome Statute, one of which is South Africa, to arrest the Russian leader if he appears on their territory.
That is why at first there were disputes whether the head of Russia would join the meeting online or risk coming in person. However, in the end, they decided that the Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation, Sergey Lavrov, would go to the meeting instead of him.
“By mutual agreement, President Vladimir Putin of the Russian Federation will not attend the Summit, but the Russian Federation will be represented by Foreign Minister, Mr. Sergey Lavrov,” – the website of the President of South Africa reported.
It is interesting that before that Russia threatened the leader of South Africa with military consequences if Vladimir Putin was detained there.
“It would be incompatible with our Constitution to risk going to war with Russia. I have a constitutional obligation to protect the national sovereignty, peace and security of the Republic,” – Ramaphosa said.
According to Anatolii Chernysh, such prudence on the part of Russia was somewhat superfluous, because South Africa would still not have dared to detain their president, as it already happened in 2015 with the president of Sudan, Omar al-Bashir.
“In my opinion, South Africa would not dare to do this because of the significant political risks of such a decision. This would lead to a complete break in relations with the Russian Federation and unforeseen consequences,” – he replied.
However, in his opinion, South Africa is more afraid of a political connection with Russia than of a military conflict, because it has great potential in this area.
“In practice, Russia will not have enough potential to wage any large-scale war against South Africa. A huge amount of military resources of the Russian Federation is involved in the war in Ukraine, and their replenishment comes at a high price. In addition, South Africa is significantly geographically distant from Russia, has a large territory and not the worst defense potential among African states. A military operation against this state would involve the dispatch of part of Russia’s military fleet in order to have at least some opportunity to strike. Given the state and capabilities of the Russian fleet, the Russian Federation (if its ships manage to reach South Africa) will be able to deliver only limited strikes. Therefore, a war between South Africa and Russia is very unlikely in principle.
The South African Republic itself is afraid of losing Russia as a partner in world politics and economy and, perhaps, partially overestimates the real role of Russia in the international arena and its influence,” – Chernysh explained.
He also emphasized that serious consequences would await South Africa if the arrest was not carried out, such as the adoption of various sanctions against it, the loss of authority in world politics, in particular, contempt from highly developed countries. Therefore, the absence of the President of the Russian Federation at the meeting only plays into Ramaphosa’s hand.
By the way, an arrest warrant can be valid for life, and its cancellation is possible only under special conditions. If the criminal is apprehended, he faces a long prison term, compulsion to compensate for damages and confiscation of property.
Therefore, the upcoming BRICS summit will be an imitation of political activity for Russia rather than a meeting at which it will be able to achieve good results for itself. It will have almost no influence on the war in Ukraine, so this event is not actively discussed in the media space. Although Putin has threatened South Africa with reprisals, he will not visit, not because of the risk of being caught, but in order not to put the authorities of South Africa before a difficult decision – to enter into a conflict with the Russian Federation or lose its reputation before the international community.
Tetiana Stelmakh
