In Germany, officials are increasingly talking about the risk of war in Europe. The government is considering cyberattacks, sabotage, and information pressure as possible triggers for a full-scale NATO-level confrontation. This is outlined in a confidential 24-page document from the German Ministry of Defense, reviewed by Politico journalists.
Berlin believes that Russian hybrid attacks could precede open fighting. The rise in espionage and intelligence activities by Russia across Europe adds to the concern of military planners. That is why the government created a simplified version of the plan for internal use, showing how Germany would defend itself in case the security situation worsens.
Germany as NATO’s Rear Base
The document, called the “Operational Plan for Germany” (OPLAN), identifies the country as a key logistical hub for NATO. In a crisis, Germany would serve as a base for moving troops, equipment, and resources. This automatically makes the country a potential target. German planners do not rule out the possibility that Russian attacks could target both military and civilian infrastructure.
The plan outlines several stages of a crisis. Currently, Germany is at the initial level. The main focus is on coordinating actions, protecting critical infrastructure, and preparing both the civilian and military sectors. Energy, transport, healthcare, and communications are considered key security elements. Without their stable functioning, the country cannot operate effectively in crisis conditions.
Russia’s War Spreading
Valeriy Chaly, former Ukrainian ambassador to the United States, said in a recent interview with Ukrainian media that Russia could attempt an attack on a NATO country as early as 2026. According to him, the war is gradually expanding beyond Ukraine and affecting a wider part of Europe. Possible targets include Finland, Sweden, the Baltic states, Poland, and Romania.
Chaly emphasizes that the Kremlin’s decision to continue the war was deliberate, though risky. It has changed the security situation across the continent. He notes that the speed and coordination of European governments’ actions will shape the developments in the coming years.
At the same time, according to CNN, experts and former military officials warn that Europe is not ready for a large-scale war. They note that Russia is already conducting hybrid warfare in the West—cyberattacks, sabotage, disinformation, and violations of airspace. Although Moscow denies involvement, these incidents are prompting Europeans to take the risks more seriously.
Conclusions
German security services report a rise in cyberattacks, sabotage, and attempts to influence public opinion—actions that often precede open conflict. Chancellor Friedrich Merz emphasizes that the war against Ukraine is a threat to all of Europe, so preparations must start in advance.
Western experts recommend training citizens to respond to crises and involving them in the defense system. Berlin stresses the importance of closer cooperation with partners and a clear understanding of Germany’s role in regional security.
