On the seventh of July, the second tour of a snap election in France took place. As a result, The left-wing New Popular Front secured 182 seats, President Macron’s centrist coalition ‘Together’ gained 168 seats, and Marine Le Pen’s far-right National Rally, along with its allies, won 143 seats.
The main purpose of the election, initiated by Emmanuel Macron, was to consolidate the efforts against the far-right power and the outcomes showed that the strategy worked. The reason for the worries was the 2024 European Parliament elections in France, where National Rally gained 30 seats (31.37%). Which news for Ukraine could it bring and what are the positions of leading parties — in the article.
The attitudes of leading coalition
The alliance consists of the hard-left France Unbowed (LFI) party, the Communist party, the center-left Socialist party, and the Greens. Each of them has different views on several domestic and international issues. However, they managed to find a common ground for the snap elections and win.
The Primer Minister of Poland, Donald Tusk called the results a relief for Kyiv in his “X” account.
Generally, the alliance claims the solidarity with Ukraine. Euronews outlined that NFP set the delivery of necessary weapons, the cancellation of Ukraine’s foreign debt, the seizure of the assets of oligarchs who contribute to the Russian war effort, and the sending of peacekeepers to secure nuclear power plants on their agenda.
However, the founder of the far-left France Unbowed Party (LFI) Jean-Luc Mélenchon also has a pro-Russian background. In 2014 he called the new Ukrainian government neo-Nazis and supported Crimean annexation:
The ports of Crimea are vital for the security of Russia, it is absolutely predictable that the Russians will not let this happen, they are taking protective measures against an adventurous putschist power, — said he. And now Luc
Mélenchon promotes the ceasefire ideas:
A peace without winner or loser, with mutual security guarantees claimed he according to The Spectator. His party took 77 seats.
There is room for hope. The leader of Place Publique from “Socialist Party and allies” block, which took 59 seats, is Raphaël Glucksmann, an EU parliament member, who is known for a strong support to Ukraine. Euractive called him “The man of Ukraine“.
Only 3,000 shells per month to Ukraine, while Russia fires 20,000 shells a day. While some early estimates indicated that Russia could be firing as many as 20,000 shells a day, others sees that figure as being closer to 10,000, — said he for POLITICO in April 2024.
Their criticism of ceremonial Europeans makes me laugh softly because I have been fighting for the general European interest for 20 years (…) I did not wait for them to convert to realism about Vladimir Putin, — expressed his position Glucksmann.
He blames President Emmanuel Macron for his statements that should be proved by more real actions and assured that he would help to stop the war in Ukraine and continue support until the end.
The vote for the Paris strategy to support Ukraine shows the attitude of Greens and Communists toward Ukraine an example of voting for Paris strategy to support Ukraine in March 2024.
Fabien Roussel from the French Communist Party said that his parliamentary group was against the agreement, which contributes to the military escalation, whereas Ecologists and left-wing electoral alliance the New Ecological and Social People’s Union supported the strategy but performed against Macron’s statements about the possibility to send troops to Ukraine.
Centrists’ stability
Currently, the President of France Emmanuel Macron, leader of Centrists, expresses solid support for Ukraine. In May he allowed to use of French weapons inside Russia to strike military targets.
We do not want war or division. We want a lasting peace that respects international rules and Ukrainian sovereignty. Until this peace that Europe and the world so badly need, we will continue to work to help Ukraine resist, — wrote Macron in his social networks after the June 2024 Ukraine peace summit.
The revenge step
Marine Le Pen along with her party evidently sympathises a Russian-friendly politics. She called the annexation of the Crimean peninsula “legal” and the party members performed as observers on an illegitimate referendum.
I absolutely do not believe that there was an illegal annexation: there was a referendum, the inhabitants of Crimea wanted to join Russia, — spoke Le Pen in 2017 in the French National Assembly, as BFMTV reported.
After the beginning of the full-scale invasion, she drastically changed her public statements and condemned Russian actions:
I believe in the sovereignty of nations: if Ukraine wants to join NATO, if it is their will, I don’t see who can oppose it. When a nation like Russia attacks another nation and threatens its sovereignty, there is no possible equidistance, you have to take a stand, — she said.
At the same time, she added that Ukraine is not able to defeat Russia without NATO, but Ukrainian victory can cause a third world war.
However, the permanently softened rhetoric was shifted towards the primary one. In her interview for CNN in few days before the second election tour, she claimed that the permission to attack targets on Russian territory would be canceled if she won.
So the day after National Rally took the third place instead of the expected victory they became allies with Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban in the EU parliament.
As patriotic forces, we are going to work together in order to retake our institutions and reorient policies to serve our nations and peoples, — claimed Jordan Bardella, prominent RN`s new president. The statement shows that the new coalition would try to reduce aid to non-EU member countries.
In general, the outcome of elections is rather positive for Ukraine. The Prime Minister of France Gabriel Attal announced his resignation. During his visit to Canada said that Europe must not allow Russia to win, proposed the new Russian war target countries, and outlined that they should do more to help Ukraine. Now the arguing about the new candidate started. For so many parties with different priorities vectors, it is not easy to find a consensus. So, the dynamic of new parliament members settling will shape the prognoses for Ukraine.
