In 2023, the allied states decided to provide Ukraine with a modern F-16 multirole fighter. In total, Ukraine may receive up to 100 aircraft from Belgium, Denmark, the Netherlands, and Norway.
Against the background of rumours that F-16s are already in Ukraine, which began to spread as early as December 2023, the spokesman of the Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Yuriy Ignat, denied the start of deliveries of these aircraft.
In February 2024, similar rumours appeared again. So, when Ukraine will receive the mentioned fighters, and to what extent modern aviation can influence the course of the war — we gather the opinions of experts and the military and analyze the situation.
Why exactly F-16 and how many does Ukraine need?
Yuriy Ignat believes that Ukraine needs at least five F-16 brigades, which is approximately 180 aircraft. Considering the fact that we are talking about protecting the airspace of the largest country in Europe in the conditions of a major war, this number is quite adequate. However, there is one big “but”. The planes will arrive in Ukraine gradually, and it is difficult to predict how long this process will take. The only thing that is known is that the transfer of F-16s to Ukraine will be largely related to their replacement in NATO countries by more modern fifth-generation F-35 aircraft. That is, the renewals of the Ukrainian and NATO military aircraft fleets are parallel processes.
The question is often asked in public: why does Ukraine want to get the F-16? The logic here is very simple: this is the most common and modern combat aircraft. Currently, there are more than 2,800 F-16 Fighting Falcons in service around the world, and more than 1,500 of them are in service with NATO countries. This means that the logistics of supplying them, maintaining them, obtaining components, etc. will be easier.
F-16s will definitely be in Ukraine
Danish ambassador to Ukraine, Ole Egberg Mikkelsen, told a Ukrainian journalist from “We – Ukraine” about the agreements between Denmark and Ukraine:
“Don’t worry. The aircraft for Ukraine, they will be there for sure. It’s our entire fleet of F-16s that is now being decommissioned because we’re getting a new generation of aircraft, the F-35. And part of the aircraft will be delivered to Argentina. But the number that my prime minister and your president agreed last summer, I was present there myself in Denmark, it stands. There’s no need to worry. The F-16s will be delivered as promised. And I’ve met the Ukrainian pilots that are being trained in Denmark, and they’re very energetic, committed, they’re very good, and I’m sure this will be a success, and it will improve also the air defense capacity of Ukraine once you have the F-16s flying.
I can quote my prime minister. She was in Lviv back in February, and this came up in the press conference, and she said that they will be delivered in the summer, this summer. She did not mention any specific month, but she said the summer, and I’m sure that’s going to happen. This summer.
She was not very specific. And the complication is that it’s not only the pilots that need to be trained. There’s also ground crews. There’s all the equipment. So it’s not just transferring an aircraft and pilots. It’s the entire package in terms of ground staff, equipment, etc”.
Pilots training
Pilots are another pressing issue. This was discussed last year. No one will put a person who is not fully prepared at the controls, because it is a big risk to lose both the military pilot himself and a valuable aircraft. Operating the F-16 requires specific skills, and their acquisition requires a long training time. Even last year, deadlines were announced at the highest level: about a year for active Ukrainian combat pilots to master the modern fighter.
A military pilot of the Air Force of the Ukrainian Armed Forces with the nickname Phantom spoke about certain aspects of the training of Ukrainian pilots in the USA and EU countries. An interview with him was recorded on February 9, 2024 for VOA. He believes that the Soviet Su-27 and MiG-29, which are now the main machines of the Ukrainian fighter aircraft, are very different from the fourth-generation F-16 fighters. Despite the professionalism of Ukrainian pilots and previous online training, it is extremely difficult to learn to skillfully fly American aircraft in combat conditions. This is because the F-16 is a modern, digitized aircraft with many systems and programs. These have to be activated both before take-off and during the flight.
«Of course, I can’t tell you the number, but I want to say that the number is sufficient to perform tasks on the number of aircraft that will be handed over to us when they are ready. And this training system will continue to give us ready-made personnel with those aircraft that will be transferred. Of course, we would like to have more, but it is worth mentioning that we have problems not only with training, but also with the number of training places that our partners have», — Phantom.
One way out of the situation is to hire Western pilots with F-16 piloting experience. However, despite the apparent public willingness of the Ukrainian Air Force to take such a step, the issue has been in the air for over a year.
Dan Hampton, American pilot, and retired lieutenant colonel, in an interview with VOA sees political reasons for this:
«I heard that the reason was that the government of Ukraine continued to hope that America or NATO countries would send their military pilots there to help fight for Ukraine. I think this is an unrealistic expectation for the reason that if an ordinary military officer were to fight, it would mean that he would have to have the approval of his government, which would mean a confrontation with Moscow. Not that it mattered. I mean, who cares what Moscow does? But politicians are worried about it. And I hope that the authorities in Kyiv will realize that this will not happen. And that the only ones who will be able to fly these planes will be your pilots, or people like me, whom they will bring in advance to fly them».
The influence of modern fighters on the warfare – the opinion of experts
Dan Hampton also share his vision of the prospects for the use of the F-16 in the Russo-Ukrainian war. According to the American pilot, equipping the Air Force of the Armed Forces with modern aircraft could significantly change the picture of this war, including significantly expanding the capabilities of the offensive potential:
«In my opinion, that’s where the F-16 should start. This will «sweep» Russian aircraft out of the sky. When that is done, then all the Russians will be able to do is drop cruise missiles and cheap drones from North Korea and Iran into Ukraine’s airspace, which don’t work very well anyway, because they won’t be able to get their planes and their helicopters into your airspace. When this is done, then, with the cover of these fighters, the Ukrainian army on the ground will be able to do what is needed. Of course, F-16s can do all of these things, but the priority is to gain control of the air, which means taking out Russian aircraft, and also taking out surface-to-air missiles, which is what the F-16 does best».
Chris Sampson, Editor of National Security Media, Terrorism Analyst and Author, USA:
«Air support is always crucial but is always part of a larger collective application of resources including ground support. Ukraine has a very different situation without the overlapping types of equipment normally desired for air support. But, the presence of F-16s can certainly make Russia uncomfortable enough to reduce putting a bomber in the air. Valerii Zaluzhnyi spelled it out in his essay on Nov 1st [2023], the one falsely accused of «stalemate» language when it was quite the opposite. I wrote about this. He spelled out that even Russia doesn’t want to put planes in the air because SAMs could knock them down. UA has been very successful at keeping RU planes afraid».
Conclusions
The aviation component is an extremely important factor in changing the battlefield. This is true both for the security aspect and for the expansion of the offensive potential. Modern aviation will allow the ground forces to perform their military tasks much more effectively and will significantly reduce the number of casualties among the Ukrainian infantry. Today, we are talking exclusively about the F-16 as the most common modern fighter in the world. At the same time, for the effective use of these aircraft, they must be put into service with the Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the required number (ideally, up to 180 units). This process will take a long time. To what extent is it difficult to say now? This will depend on some factors, in particular, the re-equipment of military aircraft of NATO countries with more modern F-35s. Ukraine should receive the first F-16 fighter jets in the coming months: Ukrainian pilots are finishing their training, and in parallel the necessary infrastructure for aircraft maintenance is being prepared.
Kostyantyn Grechany
