On November 24, 2024, Romania held presidential elections, followed by parliamentary elections on December 1. The international community is closely monitoring the potential implications of these events for Ukraine’s support, particularly given the rise of far-right forces in European countries, according to The Ukrainian Review.
Current President Klaus Iohannis is completing his second term, with candidates from both liberal and right-wing parties vying for his position. Among the likely contenders are Prime Minister Ion-Marcel Ciolacu of the Social Democratic Party and Dan Mircea Geoană, leader of the Liberal Party and former NATO Deputy Secretary-General.
In the parliamentary elections, parties critical of aiding Ukraine, such as the far-right Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR), are poised to strengthen their positions. This political force has voiced territorial claims against Ukraine and enjoys substantial electoral support. Forecasts suggest that AUR, along with the SOS Romania party, could secure up to 20% of the parliament, potentially influencing Romanian policy.
Nevertheless, pro-European parties, currently forming the parliamentary majority, remain key players. According to expert Sergiu Mișcoiu, most Romanians support Ukraine, and the country’s political stance towards Ukraine is unlikely to change significantly after the elections.
There is a majority in Romanian society supporting Ukraine and a majority in the parliament backing current policies towards Ukraine. After the next elections, things are not expected to change much. A far-right victory in these elections seems unlikely, as major political parties–especially the Social Democrats, the Liberal Party, the Save Romania Union, and the Democratic Alliance of Hungarians in Romania (RMDSZ)–have repeatedly stated that the current course will be maintained, leaving far-right forces isolated, – Sergiu Mișcoiu told The Ukrainian Review.
Romania remains a vital ally to Ukraine, providing diplomatic, economic, and military assistance. A recent step in this partnership was the delivery of the Patriot air defense system to strengthen Ukraine’s air defense capabilities. However, the growing influence of far-right parties could affect the scope of future support.
The international context also remains a decisive factor. Romania’s policies toward Ukraine are influenced by decisions made by the EU and NATO, and any changes in their positions could reshape Bucharest’s approach.
The election outcomes will serve as a crucial indicator for regional stability and the continuation of Ukraine’s support amid ongoing war efforts.
