On June 24, 2023, many were riveted to resources that broadcast online events that were called the “rebellion of Yevgeny Prigozhin.” It seemed that the 25,000-strong army of professional mercenaries and fighters with combat experience would definitely reach Moscow and change power. But on the evening of June 24, it became known that Yevgeny Prigozhin, after negotiations with Alexander Lukashenko (self-proclaimed president of Belarus), decided to return the Wagner militants to their places of permanent deployment, and he himself agreed to leave Russia by leaving for Belarus.
Russia versus Russia: who benefits and what are the results?
June 24, 2023, became a one-day Russian-Russian war. The Wagnerites shot down at least six helicopters and one aircraft: among the downed equipment were extremely rare and valuable pieces of equipment — the Il-22 airborne control center and electronic warfare helicopters based on the Mi-8. This is a very important target. And most importantly, the Russian Aerospace Forces have lost experienced crews, which may turn out to be more valuable than the equipment itself. There were also reports that Russian National Guard units quickly laid down their arms after clashing with Prigozhin’s units. A reservoir was also blown up and destroyed with aviation kerosene in Voronezh.
Who benefits? Ukraine benefits from any confrontation within Russia. Some politicians, for example, Oleksiy Danilov, believe that this is “the beginning of the end of Russia” in the form in which we now see it.
On the other hand, the contradictions within the power blocs in Russia will obviously intensify. Some of the army structures, having received such an antidote of distrust, will now focus on another party, while harboring anger towards the Wagner PMC and its leader. In particular, we are talking about army aviation — it was they who became the primal “victims” of Prigozhin’s raid.
It will certainly be negative for Ukraine that all the “weak” links in the military and military-civilian administration will be replaced. Only the forces loyal and devoted to Putin and the war will remain, which will be forced to show even greater loyalty, and for this, some success at the front will be needed.
International context
Western countries are looking at the situation in the Russian Federation with apprehension. The risk of destabilization in a country with thousands of nuclear carriers is a matter of world security. Therefore, one of the versions of the artificial “Prigozhin’s rebellion” is another “warning from the West that they will be more comfortable with Putin, he is not a criminal with a sledgehammer, but a cruel authoritarian ruler, but not a madman with a gang of murderers who believe that their business is death [a moto by PMC “Wagner” — ed.].”. Many countries have already announced that they do not recommend visiting Russia.
Various political and military-political groups tried to use the situation with the “Prigozhin rebellion”: the popularly elected President of Belarus Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya and the Kalinovsky regiment issued statements in which they called on Belarusians to prepare to liberate Belarus, a former oligarch who served 10 years in prison in the Russian Federation Mikhail Khodorkovsky called on the Russians take up arms and help the Wagnerites, supporters of Alexey Navalny opposed any collaboration with Prigozhin.
Open final
Opinions regarding the future of Yevgeny Prigozhin himself differ. Experts broadcasting on CNN believe that Russian special services can kill him already in Belarus. In turn, General Richard Dannatt, Former Chief of the General Staff of the UK, believes that Ukraine should beware of a possible attack on Kyiv by the Wagner Group mercenaries led by Yevgeny Prigozhin, who left for Belarus after the rebellion attempt.
Vladimir Putin’s monopoly of power has been seriously shaken, and the “old cadres” in the person of Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu and Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov may be replaced by new military men. Will it benefit Ukraine, will it weaken the Russian army? This is the main question, to which no analyst will give an answer. The answer to this will be given by the Ukrainian defense forces on the battlefield.
Stanislav Kinka
