An attack on Iran launched by the US is unlikely to overthrow the current regime. This is stated in a classified report by the US National Intelligence Council.
Information from the Report
The Washington Post reported the information from the classified report. Three sources familiar with the document confirmed the data. The findings raise doubts about Donald Trump’s plan to “clean out” Iran’s leadership structure and install a new ruler. According to him, the military campaign against the Iranian regime has “only just begun.”
The report was completed about a week before February 28, when the United States and Israel attacked Iran. It outlines several succession scenarios. Intelligence officials concluded that Iran’s religious and military representatives would respond to the killing of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. They would follow protocols designed to keep power continuous.
According to the report, the White House has not said whether Trump knew about this assessment before the military operation began. White House spokesperson Anna Kelly said the Iranian regime is being absolutely crushed. Doubts about the Iranian opposition taking power were also reported by the New York Times, Reuters, and the Wall Street Journal.
According to Iranian researcher Suzanne Maloney, Iran’s institutions will endure. She bases her assessment on many years of data about the Islamic Republic.
The intelligence report did not consider other possible scenarios. These include sending US ground troops to Iran or encouraging ethnic groups to launch uprisings. It is also unclear whether the campaign described in the report is identical to the operations currently underway.
Predictions About Iran’s New Leader
There were rumors that the son of the late supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, could become Iran’s next ruler. The IRGC promoted his candidacy but faced resistance. Among other possible candidates was Ali Larijani, secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council.
The war against Iran has entered its second week, and Trump demands the country’s “unconditional defeat.” The U.S. president believes he should play a role in choosing Iran’s next leader. According to him, the younger Khamenei is “incompetent” and “lightweight.” Trump opposes Iranian leaders who would simply “rebuild” the country’s nuclear and missile infrastructure.
“We want them to have a good leader. We have some people who I think would do a good job,” he told NBC News.
However, Iran’s parliamentary speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf rejected the idea that Trump would play any role in selecting the country’s next leader.
“The fate of dear Iran, which is more precious than life, will be determined solely by the proud Iranian nation, not by Epstein’s gang,” Ghalibaf said.
US officials say there are currently no signs of a mass popular uprising in Iran. They also have not observed major splits within the government or security forces that could lead to a new regime.
Experts told the outlet that Iran’s clerical and military institutions will resist the US. Therefore, installing a new regime in Iran may not be easy for Trump.
Earlier, The Ukrainian Review reported that NATO supports the US operation against Iran’s nuclear and missile facilities. However, the Alliance as an organization is not participating in the operation.
