Determining how many people will live in Ukraine in 2024 is challenging due to the effects of the ongoing war.
The State Statistics Service of Ukraine has not published data on the population since December 1, 2021, when it stood at 41.13 million people.
According to the United Nations Population Fund, as of 2023, 37.9 million people lived in Ukraine, of whom more than 20% were over 65 years old, and another 15% were children under 14. According to the UN, the total fertility rate was 1.3, which is already considered one of the lowest rates in recent years.
Currently, it is not possible to make an accurate estimate of Ukraine’s population due to a number of factors affecting the population:
War
The war has led to significant migration, both internal and external.
According to the Center for Economic Strategy, as of the end of January 2024, 4.9 million Ukrainians are abroad because of the war. The overwhelming majority of refugees are women (the largest share is women aged 35-44 – 13%) and children.
As of January 2024, the largest share of Ukrainian refugees in Europe is in Germany (30%) and Poland (22%). Outside of Europe, the largest countries in terms of the number of Ukrainians accepted since the beginning of the full-scale invasion are the United States (280 thousand people), the United Kingdom (253.2 thousand) and Canada (210.2 thousand).
According to the Ministry of Social Policy, 4.6 million internally displaced persons were registered in 2024.
Birth rate
The birth rate in Ukraine has dropped significantly due to the war. The National Health Service told Ukrinform that 176,981 births were recorded in the electronic healthcare system (EHS) in 2023, with 178,128 children registered in the EHS.
How many people have died in Russia Ukraine war?
The mortality rate has also increased due to the war. According to Opendatabot, 541,739 deaths were registered in 2022, which is 24% less than in 2021.
Unfortunately, it is currently impossible to summarize the results for the temporarily occupied and newly liberated areas.
Deutsche Welle reported that as of early February 2022, the UN Human Rights Monitoring Mission in Ukraine had verified 10,378 civilians killed since the beginning of the invasion across Ukraine. At the same time, the mission acknowledges that the actual number of casualties is much higher, as the number of deaths in Mariupol and other cities where high civilian casualties have been reported is still unknown due to the occupation.
Unofficial estimates
The International Monetary Fund projects that Ukraine’s population will reach 33.4 million in 2024. By 2028, the population will increase from 33.4 million to 36.0 million.
Forecast for 2024
Ukraine’s population is expected to continue to decline in 2024. The rate of decline will depend on the course of the war and other factors.
