“The Europeans give us, so that we cannot lose. They should give us, so that we can win on our own and their behalf.”
Oleksandr Musiienko, Ukrainian military analyst
Vienna
In the West, it has become close to a dogma that Russia necessarily must and will win its war against Ukraine. The lament, possibly a creation by the Kremlin propaganda machine, claims that the Ukrainians’ summer offensive stalled, that Donald Trump will win next year’s presidential election in the United States and stop American aid to Ukraine, and that Europe cannot keep up with the revanchist-fascist regime of Vladimir Putin.
It is as relief, in the middle of Vienna’s mire and slush, to meet the Ukrainian political scientist Oleksandr Musiienko, on his way from a perhaps slightly airy conference in Paris to Kyiv, where he heads the Center for Military and Legal Studies. “The war is not at all lost,” he insists. “The Russians are facing enormous political and military problems in the middle of a war that they cannot get out of. If the US were to stop its aid, Ukraine would fight on with Europe’s help. Europe, with half a billion inhabitants, an advanced economy, and an unrivaled industrial capacity, is far superior to Russia. What we lack in Europe is the political will to win.”
Ahead of the EU summit in Brussels this Thursday and Friday [14-15 December 2023 — ed.], Musiienko suggests that Europe’s leading armaments producers — Germany, France and Britain, even Italy, Spain, Sweden, and Finland – streamline and systematize their military capabilities for the war in Eastern Europe. “Ukraine is being held back by a serious lack of ammunition, drones, rockets, and heavy artillery,” he states. “Nevertheless, our armed forces are performing above expectations. They are highly motivated and skillfully led. They have stopped one of the world’s largest armies. They have launched an offensive that is making progress, albeit slowly. They have expelled the Russians from Kyiv and Kharkiv. They have recaptured Kherson in the south, crossed the Dnieper, and are preparing a push towards the Sea of Azov. I see no reason for pessimism.”
The summit in Brussels will confirm the EU’s willingness to assist Ukraine, but words alone will not do it. The Ukrainians can very soon deploy the combat aircraft that the Nordic countries and the Netherlands have made available. After that, German Taurus air-launched cruise missiles will be needed to soften up the Russian positions both behind the front in the east and in the illegally annexed Crimea. Such an offensive, especially if the Taurus or another set of missiles could destroy the Kersj-bridge, will set off alarm bells in the Kremlin, just as Vladimir Putin is to be re-elected as head of state and supreme warlord in March [2024].
Democracy – and let us not forget that Ukraine is a democracy – is part of the problems that many in the West perceive. They find it disturbing that the political and military leadership can debate in the middle of a war debating. They do not have the patience to allow the war to develop, as wars almost always do, with their ups and downs, their byways and sideways. They see weaknesses — and probably a loss of their money – where the Ukrainians almost unanimously agree that the war must be won and can be won and that no part of Ukrainian territory will constitute a bargaining chip in any negotiations with Russia. Ukraine is not the problem. Western cowardice is a problem. Putinesque agents such as Turkish President Erdogan and Hungarian Prime Minister Orbán are a problem, though after the change of government in Poland, Orbán more than ever looks like a waste of time.
Money? The West is sitting on around 300 billion euros, belonging to the Central bank of Russia. They can be liquidated and finance Ukraine for years. Lack of money is the worst possible excuse for not doing the right thing. May the summiteers in Brussels take leave of any euro-pessimism and recognize fighting Ukraine for what it is: not the perfect democracy, not even the perfect state, but a shining European nation, deserving of all our support.
“The Europeans give us so that we cannot lose. They should give us, so that we can win on our own and their behalf of Europe,” says Musiienko, before getting into his car to drive from Vienna’s Christmas fantasies back to the reality of Ukraine.
Author: Per Nyholm
Danish journalist since 1960, based in Austria, columnist and foreign correspondent at the liberal Danish daily newspaper Jyllands-Posten. This text was translated and adapted for The Ukrainian Review by Stanislav Kinka.
