Russia is considering attacks on electricity transmission substations that support the operation of Ukraine’s nuclear power plants in order to force Kyiv to accept unacceptable conditions for ending the war. Ukraine’s Defence Intelligence reports that these plans form part of a deliberate campaign of energy terror against civilians.
According to Ukrainian intelligence, Moscow is targeting infrastructure that connects nuclear power units to Ukraine’s unified energy system. If such attacks succeed, nuclear units could be forced into emergency shutdowns. As a result, large parts of the country could be left without electricity and heating during the harshest winter in the past decade.
Which Facilities Are in the Kremlin’s Focus
Ukraine’s Defence Intelligence says that by mid-January 2025 Russian forces had conducted reconnaissance of at least ten critical substations across nine regions of Ukraine. Intelligence officials assess these actions as preparation for future strikes.
The goal is twofold. First, Russia seeks physical damage to key facilities. Second, it aims to exert psychological pressure on Ukrainian society and on European partners that support Kyiv.
At the same time, Moscow plans to intensify intimidation of European countries. According to intelligence assessments, the Kremlin is trying to limit military and technical assistance to Ukraine, particularly in the field of air defence. Russia has used this tactic before during previous waves of mass strikes on Ukraine’s energy sector.
Energy System Under Constant Attack
The intelligence warning comes amid continued shelling. On the night of January 17, Russia again attacked Ukraine’s energy infrastructure. The Ministry of Energy reported power outages in Odesa and Kyiv regions, a difficult situation in the capital area, and the forced use of emergency and network restrictions due to frost and system overload.
First Deputy Prime Minister and Energy Minister Denys Shmyhal said Ukraine is facing its most difficult winter since the start of the full-scale invasion. He noted that Russia carried out 612 targeted attacks on the energy sector last year alone. As a result, no power plant in Ukraine has remained untouched.
Conclusions
In early January, President Volodymyr Zelensky appointed Lieutenant-General Oleh Ivashchenko as the new head of Ukraine’s Defence Intelligence. His predecessor, Kyrylo Budanov, became head of the Presidential Office.
Meanwhile, central and regional headquarters continue to coordinate emergency recovery efforts in the energy sector. According to Shmyhal, more than 15,000 energy workers are involved in repairs. At the same time, Russia continues to use energy infrastructure as a tool of war against Ukraine’s civilian population.
