Certainly. Despite all the official objections, it was the Kursk Rubicon that opened the door to the possibility of using conscripts to the fullest. No matter how paradoxical it sounds. But this is not the only prerequisite and, in fact, the only positive consequence for Russia of total Russian disgrace.
The Russians started preparing for the massive and different prize pool in July. New tasks for military commissions, new instructions. In Mariupol, there was a threat of re-conscription of those who entered the military register due to a change of residence. The occupied territories were to become a touchstone for a soft, gradual solution to problems with personnel at the front. Indeed, who will be against it if the residents of the “newly annexed” territories go to defend their pseudo-choice? No one but themselves.
But this is how the concept of “a veteran on the front line” will first appear, be legalised, and be established in the Russian media field. And then, in the next spring draft, it will no longer cause either indignation or shock in the entire territory of Russia. A simple, cynical, pragmatic plan.
But Kursk happened. The first prisoners included a large number of conscripts. The undisguised truth, which began to be voiced on the central channels. In a strange way, but spoken. When this did not cause any reaction, they began to push. Why not? And in less than a week, the topic of conscripts in the Russian army has taken root. It was accepted by society with “tacit consent”.
The main thing is that nothing happened. Neither the mothers of the prisoners staged a riot, nor did they even make an attempt to join forces, nor was there any other public activity. Nothing. Silence. A couple of isolated appeals to Putin: “Exchange my boy”, and that’s it.
What does the Russian regime see there? Opportunities. His phantom pains and flashbacks to the Chechen wars, when the Committee of Mothers exerted pressure that led to peace agreements, disappeared. It became clear to everyone that marginalisation is over. Resistance is impossible. Hands are untied.
The icing on the cake is the “liberal opposition” abroad. It is silent. It doesn’t fight against the regime, but fights for itself. Moreover, everyone is an individual. They do not run around the agencies and mass media, talking about the need to stop the war, about the horrors of the Kursk failure, and about poor conscripts. No. They are silent or talk about themselves under the smile of the Kremlin, the winner in the political struggle.
Therefore, the road is open. Now, no one will be ashamed or look back. Technically and resource-wise, the Russians are able to recruit and provide the required number of conscripts. Because this, de facto, if not cancels, then reduces contractors’ mobilisation. It is cheaper, but the quantity and quality are the same. Win-win for the regime.
Therefore, in October [2024] already, the composition of the Russian army will begin to change, and they will begin to lose not the marginalised, useless population, but their own future.
Will it change anything for us? Certainly. But the main thing is that it will send a signal about the gradual depletion of the main Russian military resource – people. And this is definitely not a bad thing.
By Petro Andryushchenko
*These opinions are solely those of the author. The Ukrainian Review takes no position and is not responsible for the author’s words.
Petro Andryushchenko was an adviser to the mayor of Mariupol. After the Russian Federation started war in Ukraine in February 2022, he became the de facto “voice” of Mariupol.
On his Telegram channel, “Andryushchenko Time“, he tells the truth about the horrors of the occupation, the deportation of people by the Russian occupants and the “filtration” camps in Donbas.
